Frost Advisory 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Alexander County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC

156 
WWUS72 KGSP 290834
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING...

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-SCZ009-013-014-291300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110329T1300Z/
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-UNION SC-
CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...SALISBURY...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...ROCK HILL...UNION...CHESTER
434 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...THE I-77 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30. 

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF FROST MAY 
  ADVERSELY EFFECT TENDER VEGETATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NCZ035-048-051>053-056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510-SCZ001>008-
010>012-019-291300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110329T1300Z/
ALEXANDER-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
HICKORY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...GREENWOOD
434 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE 
  CAROLINAS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST MAY ADVERSELY EFFECT TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A DRIER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING TO LINGER TONIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO KEY ON ENUF 100-85H DRYING TO FCST EVENTUAL CLEARING ACRS THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING.
BASED ON THIS HAVE UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND WILL
ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR BALANCE OF THE CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/MTNS
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ENUF CLEARING ACRS THESE AREAS IS LOWER.
FINGER OF MOISTENING UPGLIDE FLOW EXPANDS TOWARD THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY THICKENING CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD THREATEN THE WESTERN CWFA BEFORE SUNSET AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG F BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE W TUE NIGHT. INSENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WED AS BETTER UPPER
DIVERGENCE ARRIVES. THIS WARRANTS CATEGORICAL SW TO LOW LIKELY NE
POPS FOR THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED CAD ON WED. HOWEVER...MODEL ISOBARS DO NOT HAVE A STRONGLY
WEDGED APPEARANCE. THIS MAY BE DUE TO LINGERING BL MOISTURE THAT
DOES NOT PERMIT MUCH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS THE BETTER PRECIP
MOVES IN WED. STILL...COOLER THAN MOS MAX TEMPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
WED. CAT POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
THE AFTN AS THE UPGLIDE MOVES EAST WITH THE SFC WAVE. THE SRN TIER
COULD SEE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY MIDDAY GIVEN THE SHALLOW
CAD...ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS
AT PRESENT.

A LULL IN FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WED
EVENING...BUT BL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH. AN APPROACHING
UPSTREAM WAVE APPEARS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED FOR THE LATE WED
NIGHT/THU SYSTEM...BUT WITH A FAIR BIT OF MODEL DIVERGENCE. THE NAM
BREAKS OFF A SHARPER PIECE OF ENERGY THU AND REALLY WRAPS UP THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PRODUCES HIGHER
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKER LEAD
WAVE...KEEPS THE TROUGHINESS BACK TO THE WEST...AND FOCUSES MORE QPF
ON THE GULF COAST...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMIA OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS GFS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF AND IS PREFERRED. IT WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NAM/MET POPS AND QPF FOR THU. WEDGE LIKE
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON FRIDAY
WITH AN UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
TRANSLATION/EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA.
THE NEWER 12Z GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND AT THIS POINT...HAS ONE MAIN
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX PUSHING PAST THE CWFA. THE OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAS A
BROADER TROF AND A SECONDARY LOBE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE AREA ON SAT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER
MOVING THE FEATURE OFFSHORE AND BUILD A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
IN ITS WAKE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN IS
STILL AMBIGUOUS. AT PRESENT...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE A VERY REALISTIC GRASP ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. I RELIED
LARGELY ON HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
GENERATES A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE LOWS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MOVES A BROAD SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW
BY LATE SUN. THE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SFC
LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
AND MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE FCST AREA. IN TERMS OF PRECIP...I
KEPT A SOLID CHANCE POP OVER THE CWFA FOR FRI AND TAPERED IT DOWN TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SAT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ONLY OVER THE NC MTS
FOR SUN. THEY INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AGAIN ON DAY 7...MONDAY...AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

I LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY...VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS AND UPPER 60S OVER THE MTS. I KEPT LOWS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR FRI...SAT...AND SUN...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR BY THE EVENING PUSH AND NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. OVERNIGHT...THE 12 UTC MET AND MAV BOTH KEEP
ANY CIGS VFR WHILE THE LAMP GUIDANCE LATCHES ONTO SOME LOW CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS AND JUST GO FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE TUE NGT AND WED.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ035-048-
     051>053-056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ036-037-
     057-071-072-082.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ001>008-
     010>012-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ009-013-
     014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1201 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>008-010>012-019-291615-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
1201 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-SCZ009-013-014-291615-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-UNION SC-
CHESTER-
1201 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.