Frost Advisory 10, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY...THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER OHIO ATTM WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BY TONIGHT IT WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC. MOIST...WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT RAIN SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS NORTHWARD ALONG THE TN
LINE. SO FAR WE HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF ANY ROAD PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...THE WAYAH BALD NC ECO-NET SITE IN MACON COUNTY IS
REPORTING 29 DEGREES. A HANDFUL OF APRS SITES ARE ALSO AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...THOUGH I CAN/T FIND ANY OBSERVED FREEZING TEMPS BELOW
ABOUT 4KFT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HOW WE THOUGHT TEMPS WOULD BEHAVE.
SO THERE MAY BE A FEW ICY SPOTS AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND
THAT/S SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART TRAVEL
SHOULDN/T BE AFFECTED. IN FACT...THE ONLY SNOW REPORT WE/VE HAD WAS
FROM A LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL IN HIGHLANDS JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO.
AND IN THAT CASE...THE SNOW WAS LIGHT AND NOT STICKING.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS QUITE
UNIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 28 KT RANGE
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND DECOUPLE TONIGHT. WHILE THE LLVL FLOW WILL BECOME A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE MTNS...WHICH IS MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF NW FLOW SNOW...LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. THIS WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH PCPN.
STILL...I HAVE CHANCE SHRA/SHRA OVER THE NRN MTNS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
TOWARD MORNING THERE ARE EVEN A FEW PIXELS OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE TN LINE...BUT I AM NOT LOOKING FOR FREEZING PCPN RELATED TRAVEL
PROBLEMS.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTNS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
MANY OF THE SW MTN VALLEYS SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING AND A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BALSAMS. IT/S A
TOUGHER CALL OVER THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
STAY MIXED...LIMITING FREEZE AND FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...A FEW
LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE...SO PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN ADDED
WITH NO ADVISORIES. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MNTS OF
EXTREME NE GA. THIS LINES UP PERFECTLY WITH THE ATLANTA FORECAST
OFFICE. I/M NERVOUS ABOUT FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPSTATE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS MAY BE JUST A HAIR TOO WARM...WITH A WEAK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN ZONES KEEPING THOSE AREAS JUST A LITTLE
MIXED. IF THIS DOESN/T HAPPEN...HOWEVER...FROST WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE RURAL PARTS OF THE UPSTATE AND THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NE GEORGIA THAN WHAT/S IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY...AS
IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. BY THIS
TIME...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BE ABATING. SO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SHWR ACTIVITY SHUD
END BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHUD REBOUND A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS...AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE TN
VALLEY...AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS SHUD DECOUPLE AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MTN VLYS AND FROST ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A FAIR AMT OF LLVL
MOISTURE LINGERING AS FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS NELY. THE NAM IS RATHER
BULLISH ON MOISTURE ARND 850 MB...AND THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE HINTED
AT STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT. IN FACT..THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE MET SHOW OVC AND MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 40S AT HKY AND
OTHER SITES. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A BLEND AND KEEPS SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH NO MENTION OF FROST. FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA...AREAS OF
FROST IN THE MTNS AND PATCHY FROST IN THE SRN UPSTATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE LONGWAVE TROF INVOF THE
SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WARM ANOTHER CATEGORY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MIN
TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE
AGAIN IN THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ERN CONUS TROF SHARPENING AND AMPLIFYING SUNDAY...AS
WRN RIDGE BUILDS. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMPLIFYING THE TROF
WILL CROSS THE CWFA WITH LITTLE FANFARE...AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY.
HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS FLOW FLATTENS OUT AGAIN. TEMPS
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THRU DAY 7...WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH A MEAN
EASTERN TROUGH...WITH A TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE INTERIM...ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL REINFORCE THE EAST COAST TROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ACT UPON. THE FORECAST WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN DRY. EVEN DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DEVOID OF POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TO START THE
PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO A WARMER REGIME EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF DEEP SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 22 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE UPSTATE AIRFIELDS. WHILE 10 TO 12
KT SUSTAINED SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCLT...NOT LOOKING FOR QUITE
AS MUCH GUSTINESS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER AT BOTH KAVL AND
KHKY WHERE THE MTNS WILL TEND TO BLOCK THE FLOW. GUSTS WILL INCREASE
BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS FALLING OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

WITH THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MVFR
CIGS INTO KAVL...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS WHEN THE FLOW HAS MORE OF A NW
COMPONENT. IN FACT...THE FLOW IS SO MUCH MORE SLY THAN USUAL FOR A
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS THAT KAND MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS...BUT THAT WASN/T ADDED TO THE TAF. A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER COULD AFFECT KAVL...BUT THAT/S ALSO UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ051-052-
     058-059-062>064.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK/JDL
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-210015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
806 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ON WEST FACING SLOPES NEAR
THE TENNESSEE BORDER. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 3500
FEET BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE HIGHER RIDGES COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE SMOKIES TO THE SKYWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD FROST WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-210015-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
806 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-210015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
806 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GERAPETRITIS