Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2011
Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Jul 14, 2011, 11:14 PM EDT for Haywood County, Swain County, North Carolina. It was in force for 104 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 14, 2011, 11:14 PM EDT (03:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2011, 12:58 AM EDT
- In force
- 104 min
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Haywood County, NC, Swain County, NC
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 279 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1967 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -11 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1274 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -39 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -22 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
898
WGUS52 KGSP 150314
FFWGSP
NCC087-173-150900-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0015.110715T0314Z-110715T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1114 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SWAIN COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
* UNTIL 500 AM EDT
* AT 1107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
BALSAMS ALONG THE SWAIN COUNTY...HAYWOOD COUNTY BORDER. RADAR
ESTIMATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST 1 TO 2
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING STREAM BASINS...BALSAM CORNER CREEK...STRAIGHT FORK
RAVEN FORK...LEDGE CREEK...AND PALMER CREEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.
TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL
FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.
&&
LAT...LON 3554 8299 3551 8318 3552 8324 3550 8328
3567 8335 3567 8334 3566 8330 3573 8324
3573 8321 3577 8316 3577 8311
$$
BSH1 follow-up statement
493
WGUS72 KGSP 150458
FFSGSP
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011
NCC087-173-150512-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110715T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYWOOD NC-SWAIN NC-
1258 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN SWAIN
AND NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
LAT...LON 3554 8299 3551 8318 3552 8324 3550 8328
3567 8335 3567 8334 3566 8330 3573 8324
3573 8321 3577 8316 3577 8311
$$
ARKWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 14, 7:47 PM EDT, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 7:47 PM EDT, 3 hours 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 747 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE WEST NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 745 PM EDT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE LAST UPDATE WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. SHRA ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK LLVL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE INCREASED LLVL WINDS MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE SRN PART OF THE UPSTATE. FOR NOW I STILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS...BUT AN UPWARD REVISION MAY BE NEED SOON IN THIS AREA. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSTMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE SW NC MTNS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.. PREVIOUS VERSION... A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SW OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE FRONT...MARGINALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES MINIMAL CAPES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WITH A NOSE OF LOWER CAPES EXTENDING SW ALONG I-85 ACROSS THE UPSTATE. ACROSS THE MTNS AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...CAPES RANGED FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY ANALYSIS MATCHES WELL WITH TH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...SHOWING SHALLOW CU ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS I WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS...ISO TO NO COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM KFFC AND KGSO ILLUSTRATE A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ACROSS THE FRONT. KFFC...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OBSERVED PW AROUND 2.1 INCHES...CAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG...AND A K-INDEX IN THE U30S. KGSO...NORTH OF THE FRONT...OBSERVED PW AROUND 1.3 INCHES...NO CAPE...AN LOW K-INDEX. BOTH SOUNDINGS OBSERVED THE WBZ AROUND 14 KFT. IT APPEARS THAT TSRA TODAY WILL REMAIN GARDEN VARIETY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. TONIGHT...IT APPEARS THE SFC PRESSURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. PERSISTENCE NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REINFORCE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...I WILL KEEP LCHC TO SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND H7 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L60S...YIELDING LITTLE TO NO CAPE. POOLED EAST TN MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS...OTHERWISE POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO ISO OR LESS EAST OF THE MTNS. A CONSENSUS OF THE MOS SUPPORTS HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN KEEPS THE SE REGION IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROP RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BEST SUBSIDENCE TO THE N AND NW OF THE CWFA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY AND DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINED SFC HIGH ACROSS THE MID ATL. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL EXPECT A MODERATING H92/H85 THETA/E AIRMASS TO MIX INTO THE REGION HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SAT/SUN. MEANWHILE...THE H85 FLOW WILL TAP INTO AND ADVECT ENOUGH ATL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOL TO SCT -SHRA ACROSS THE NC MTNS...EXPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MTNS INDICATE VIRTUALLY NO SBCAPE OR ELCAPE AS THE MLVLS REMAIN TOO WARM AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MUCH THERMAL LIFT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 155 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUN NIGHT AS THE WRN RIDGE BUILDS AND SWINGS AN AXIS OVER THE SE REGION MON THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO MODIFY THE LLVL AIRMASS WITH THE SFC HIGH ANCHORED IN...BUT MAX TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL MON AND EVEN WARMER TUE THROUGH WED. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH STILL LOW END CHANCE OR SLIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA AND PERHAPS ENHANCING CONV TUE...HOWEVER WITH OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT KCLT...EXPECTING BKN TO OVC CIGS IN THE 4 TO 6 KFT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE...THOUGH THEY WILL VARY AT TIMES BETWEEN ESE AND NE. NO SHRA OR FOG EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD WITH A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...A WEDGE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CIGS OVERNIGHT. THE CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT AT KHKY...AND THEY MAY FALL TO IFR FOR A WHILE OVER THE SRN UPSTATE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE ENE ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VRBL AT KAVL. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN CHANCES...THOUGH SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY BY TMRW AFTN. IN FACT...SHRA WON/T BE TOO FAR TO THE WEST OF KAVL MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED NE TO SW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE EDGES OF THE OF THE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. DIURNAL TSRA AND VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/NED SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...MCAVOY
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 2:49 PM EDT, 8 hours 25 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 249 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-151900- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY- MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON- 249 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ035>037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151900- ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 249 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 10:53 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Haywood, Swain | 2 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2011Every flash flood warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.