Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO IN SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(347 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011)
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER RETURNING BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(347 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011)
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION REMAIN QUITE NEBULOUS BUT CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE
INCREASING BY THE EVENING AS THE THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY AS THE CIN
DECREASES AND CAPES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AS FOR STORM MODE...WE HAVE SEEN MULTICELL STORMS FORM TODAY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR
SEGMENTS. EXPECT THE SAME SORT OF EVOLUTION TO ANY STORMS THAT GET
GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS WIDE VARIATION IN EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN...INCLUDING THE 20 KM WRF AND HRRR RUC.

THE STORMS SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT DOWN THERE BY LATE MORNING. WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS TO LOW CLOUD EXTENT AS SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER SHALLOW
INVERSION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE IS ALREADY RETURNING NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(347 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011)
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO LAG THE ECMWF AND NAM WRT THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BEING PUSHED NORTH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BY A LOW ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS LOW IS PROGD BY THE MODELS TO MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO I BELIEVE WE/LL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW 55-65KTS BULK SHEAR FRIDAY AND CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
WE COULD SEE A FEW SPINUPS.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AND WE/LL SEE CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE ACCORDINGLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY WX SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
INCREASING TSRA CHANCES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(735 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011)
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SFC
COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CARRY VCTS/CB THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AT MKG AND GRR AND FROM ROUGHLY 03Z TO 09Z FOR TERMINALS
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR. WILL AMEND FOR LOWER CONDITIONS LATER IF IT
APPEARS STORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL FOR AN APPRECIABLE
AMOUNT OF TIME.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MAY BRING A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
BE UNDER 12 KNOTS.

TSTMS MAY FLARE UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR JXN..  OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE A PREDOMINATELY VFR DAY ONCE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

&&

.MARINE...(216 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011)
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND GUST TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 4 FEET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(216 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011)
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
TONIGHT SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT COULD BE HEAVY IN THE
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE THROUGH
     THURSDAY.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:  OSTUNO
LONG TERM:   93
AVIATION:    MEADE
MARINE:      OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:   OSTUNO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
202 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-090915-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
202 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION
WILL BE EAST AT 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IF THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ844>849-090915-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
202 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALLEGAN                 42.53N 85.86W
06/08/2011  E50 MPH          ALLEGAN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 W ALLEGAN             42.53N 86.01W
06/08/2011  E45 MPH          ALLEGAN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT PLEASANT          43.60N 84.77W
06/08/2011  M50 MPH          ISABELLA           MI   AWOS

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOLLAND                 42.78N 86.11W
06/08/2011  M66 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND MEASURED AT THE HOLLAND STATE PARK.

&&

MKALEMBK

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