Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
800 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(439 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011)
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH TOO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAINS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA TOWARD MID DAY MONDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
COLDER AIR THEN COMES OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CHANGE
ANY LINGERING RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(439 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
12Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH A LESS FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER JET REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.  SEEMS LIKES THIS LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...BUT WOULD STILL FAVOR THE AREAS SE OF
A LWA-AMN LINE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TOO...SO A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN
SEVERE HAIL.

OTHERWISE THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO MAINLY BE BRINGING SW LOWER
MICHIGAN THE THREAT OF HEAVIER RAINS.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 SHOULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH.  AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THEN TOO.  AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S NORTH OF
I-96...AND THROUGH THE 50S SOUTH.  THEN TEMPS WILL FALL MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.  IT SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE PCPN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS BRIEF AND ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINOR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(439 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THIS GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GOING GRIDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS THE LONG TERM
GETS UNDERWAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS WEAK AND MOISTURE
STARVED WITH QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO IMPINGE
ON THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND
HAS MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE GULF. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ADDED PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE POSSIBLE OUT OF THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY... WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NORMAL
LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(800 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011)
LEFT MANY OF THE DETAILS OF THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE INTACT. RADAR
TONIGHT WAS SHOWING AN ERUPTING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
IOWA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL AREA...INCLUDING
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL BE WATCHED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT
WILL BE IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 6AM TIMEFRAME. HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
SHIFTING WINDS AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES BY EARLY MORNING. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS
TURN NORTHWESTERLY.

BOTTOM LINE...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMONPLACE AS RAIN DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVES IN WITH LOW CIGS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AMENDMENTS THAT INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE THE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING.

&&

.MARINE...(439 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011)
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO TUESDAY.  SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT COMES BY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(439 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011)
A GENERAL RAINFALL OF AROUND HALF AN INCH HAS OCCURRED SO FAR
TODAY.  ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY SOUTH OF I-96.  HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH.  RIVERS WILL BE
BROUGHT TO BANKFULL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THIS RAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    JK
SHORT TERM:  JK
LONG TERM:   63
AVIATION:    HOVING
MARINE:      JK
HYDROLOGY:   JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-040915-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1131 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO ALMA LINE
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 55 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

LMZ844>849-040915-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1131 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WAVES OVER 4 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WAVES OVER 4 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

OSTUNO JK

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