Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
631 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(353 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011)
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN COME TO AN END.  TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY
DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF...FROM
THE 70S ON MONDAY...INTO THE 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(353 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS RATHER GOOD LATE THIS EVENING.  A
LINE OF STORMS WERE COMING TOGETHER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THESE SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS A
COUPLED UPPER JET MOVES IN THIS EVENING.  THEN TOWARD MIDNIGHT A LOW
LEVEL JET APPROACHES TO HELP MAINTAIN THE STORMS.  IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SW LOWER MICHIGAN WILL COME
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 3 AM.  THIS TIMING ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS AND A SHARP THETA-E RIDGE.  SHEAR VALUES
IN THE LOWEST 1KM RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND 03Z OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO LATER THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT OCCLUDES AND COMES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT COME THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.  IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT LINGERING TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MUCH OF THE
DAY.  WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH AFTER THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED...THERE COULD BE MORE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET COMES OVERHEAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS TOO WHICH
IS WHEN THE STORMS SHOULD PEAK.  THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(353 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
SYSTEMS ARE MOVED AT A STEADY PACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM... EXCEPT FOR A LOW IN THE ECMWF PROGGED TO SLOW OR STALL
NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM
MOVEMENT MORE CONSISTENT... SO LEANED TOWARD DRIER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD AS SHOWN BY THE GFS.

THIS WOULD BRING RAIN TO MICHIGAN... AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN... WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CUT TO 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WOULD REMOVE PRECIPITATION... IF IT WOULD NOT CREATE AN
ISLAND IN THE GRIDS. LEFT THE WEEKEND DRY... AS A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DEPICTED IN THE GFS... KEEPS SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OR
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL
HIGHS RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES TO THE MID 70S. NORMAL LOWS ARE
AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(631 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011)
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CUMULUS AND A WARM ATMOSPHERE ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS AROUND 12 KTS GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S OUT OF
THE SOUTH. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS... AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS... WILL
COME LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THEIR VFR RANGES... WITH SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED IFR IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. MAY HAVE A LULL IN
THE WINDS OVERNIGHT... BUT THEY SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...(353 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011)
TOOK THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN FOR ALL BUT AREAS SOUTH OF SOUTH
HAVEN.  THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE SHOULD SEE THE
STRONGEST SSW WINDS TONIGHT AS THIS AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE
BAGGINESS OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION.  ALTHOUGH NO SCA IS IN AFFECT BEYOND TONIGHT...IT APPEARS
THE LAKE WILL STAY SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(353 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011)
MOST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PCPN AND WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AND A HALF...SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVIER TOTALS WILL OCCUR.  BRIEF PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS AND A JUMP IN WATER LEVELS OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 5AM TONIGHT ST. JOESPH TO SOUTH
HAVEN.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    JK
SHORT TERM:  JK
LONG TERM:   63
AVIATION:    63
MARINE:      JK
HYDROLOGY:   JK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
903 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S KALAMAZOO           42.26N 85.59W
05/22/2011                   KALAMAZOO          MI   PUBLIC

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN IN THE WESTNEDGE AREA. ALSO .10 INCH
            HAIL.

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     PORTAGE                 42.20N 85.58W
05/22/2011  E50.00 MPH       KALAMAZOO          MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND.

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S KALAMAZOO           42.24N 85.59W
05/22/2011  E55.00 MPH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST. TREES AND/OR BRANCHES DOWN IN THE
            AREA.

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     SCHOOLCRAFT             42.12N 85.64W
05/22/2011  M65.00 MPH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            65 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER.

0743 PM     HAIL             WSW PLAINWELL           42.44N 85.65W
05/22/2011  E0.25 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL RECEIVED IN PLAINWELL.

0753 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE KALAMAZOO         42.24N 85.56W
05/22/2011  M58.00 MPH       KALAMAZOO          MI   ASOS

            58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY ASOS

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     BEDFORD                 42.40N 85.23W
05/22/2011  E50.00 MPH       CALHOUN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS 35 MPH GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

0813 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BATTLE CREEK        42.26N 85.18W
05/22/2011  E50.00 MPH       CALHOUN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT LAKEVIEW SQUARE MALL.

0819 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PENNFIELD               42.37N 85.10W
05/22/2011                   CALHOUN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOCAL FIRE DEPT REPORTS TREES DOWN IN PENNFIELD ON AREA
            ROAD.

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW BATTLE CREEK       42.30N 85.22W
05/22/2011                   CALHOUN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.5 INCH HEALTHY TREE BRANCH DOWN ON POWER LINES

0850 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE GRAND LEDGE       42.74N 84.74W
05/22/2011  E50.00 MPH       EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED. HEAVY RAIN REPORTED.

&&

KHOOG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
909 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW CONVIS TWP        42.35N 85.08W
05/22/2011                   CALHOUN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN EMMETT TOWNSHIP. LARGE HEALTHY
            TREES.

&&

GWETZEL

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