River Flood Advisory 73, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011)
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING THOUGH THURSDAY. RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...BUT THEN IT WILL
COOL OFF BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM 45 TO 50. THE EARLY PART
OF THIS COMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011)

MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY HEAVY RAIN AND AREAL FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. WE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT SOUTHEAST OF A HOLLAND TO CLARE LINE.

(TONIGHT)
BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /H7-H5 OF GREATER THAN 7C/ ARE
SPREADING NE FROM IL/IN INTO SW LOWER MI. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED INSOLATION...RESULTING IN MLCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG PER
THE 19Z SPC ANALYSIS...BUT AREAS OF CLEARING ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING
FROM IN/IL. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT SOUTHEAST
OF A HOLLAND TO CLARE LINE...AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO OUR SW CWFA. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

(WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM WEDNESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS A SUCCESSION OF SURFACE
PRESSURE WAVES MIGRATE NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT. THE FIRST PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOIST FLUX
CONVERGENCE. SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PRESSURE WAVES...BUT EXACT TIMING DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. REGARDING QPF...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HAD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND EACH AGREE WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THREE INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR PARTS OF OUR CWFA...ESPECIALLY SE...BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011)
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DETERMINING THE CHC OF RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA.

WE WILL SEE THE LAST EFFECTS FROM THE CURRENT UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DURING THE DAY ON THU. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AROUND THE NEW UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE WED. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA BY THU. THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT IN THE AREA. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE LIKELY CHCS FOR THU WITH THIS IN MIND. ANY RAINFALL ON
THU WILL ONLY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING THAT MAY BE OCCURRING
AT THAT TIME.

THE BEST WEATHER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DURING THE
FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA...AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
IN. MILD AIR ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED AND WE COULD WARM WELL INTO THE
60S WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. LOWER 70S EVEN LOOK POSSIBLE ON
SAT IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON SAT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW ON THU TRANSLATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING ON HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. WE
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT EURO SOLUTION WITH
THE WRN TROUGH DIGGING AND THE FRONT ALIGNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WET WEEKEND.

EVEN AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MON...THE STATE WILL
BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL THROUGH TUE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(758 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011)
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 02Z AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WET
GROUND ALONG WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD
ALLOW IFR TO DEVELOP BY 06Z WITH SOME LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011)
BASED ON LOCAL GLERL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WEBCAMS...WILL CANCEL THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NO OTHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011)
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND AS HIGH AS 3
INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.
EXPECT MAINSTEM RIVER ISSUES TO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
THE RAINFALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    TJT
SHORT TERM:  TJT
LONG TERM:   NJJ
AVIATION:    OSTUNO
MARINE:      TJT
HYDROLOGY:   TJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED DAY ONE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
110 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-271100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
110 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE SOUTHEAST OF A
SOUTH HAVEN TO ALMA LINE...MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO AN INCH
IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALSO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTH HAVEN TO GRAND
RAPIDS TO ALMA LINE. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
EXCEED TWO INCHES IN SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTH HAVEN TO ALMA LINE. RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REPORTS ARE REQUESTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

LMZ844>849-271100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
110 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFT TODAY AS STIFF
EAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
733 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CLARE                   43.82N 84.77W
04/26/2011  M1.20 INCH       CLARE              MI   PUBLIC

            THIS WAS A 24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             2 W RICHLAND            42.38N 85.49W
04/26/2011  M1.25 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   PUBLIC

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
737 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             2 N OIL CITY            43.64N 84.59W
04/26/2011  E0.70 INCH       MIDLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             5 W ALMA                43.38N 84.76W
04/26/2011  E0.70 INCH       GRATIOT            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
813 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             SHERIDAN                43.21N 85.07W
04/26/2011  M1.50 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL RANGED IN SIZE FROM 1 INCH UP TO AN INCH AND A
            HALF.

&&

MKALEMBK

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