River Flood Advisory 16, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1015 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...(413 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011)
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
NUMEROUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT
AND CREATE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO RAIN
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME A BIT HEAVIER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN. RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MID
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1015 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011)
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES STILL FREEZING OR
BELOW WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE INTERSTATE 96 CORRIDOR.  SOME
ICING EARLIER AS WELL CAUSED SOME IMPACT.  WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND NOON...BUT NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY.

INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE NEED FOR WATCH FOR FLOODING.  BURST
OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY WITH THE LLJ MOVING IN THIS EVENING AND VERY
HIGH PWS IN PLACE.  SNOWMELT COULD ADD TO THE RISK.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY 10 AM SAT.  FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET THEN SNOW
SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(413 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011)
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
MY PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON THE MID WEEK STORMS SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THEN LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR SEASONAL TRANSITION PERIODS. WHATEVER... THIS
GIVES ME HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OUR STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AS I MENTIONED YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE THAT...THIS SYSTEM FOR
WED HAS BEEN FORECAST CONSISTENTLY FOR OVER A WEEK NOW.

THE STORY IS A NORTHERN STREAM JET CORE CLIMBING OVER THE TOP OF THE
ALASKAN CLOSED UPPER HIGH ROTATES SOUTH ONCE IT GETS INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THAT IN
TURN PULLS DOWN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
INTO WESTERN CANADA.  MEANWHILE A POWERFULLY PACIFIC
STORM...CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY THE
NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM. THAT WAS THE ONE WITH THE 200 KNOT JET
CORE THAT CAME OFF OF JAPAN A FEW DAYS AGO.  ANYWAY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PHASE OVER THE WESTERN
CENTRAL STATES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO
WANT TO GO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MICHIGAN THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE POLAR AIR BEING PULLED DOWN BY THE ALASKAN SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUBTROPIC ENERGY OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM... THAT BY WEDNESDAY WILL
HAVE GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... THIS SHOULD BE POWERFUL EARLY
SPRING STORM OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  WHILE NOT SPECIFICALLY
FORECAST YET... I STILL BELIEVE WE COULD SEE A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM IF THE CENTER OF IT GOES NORTH OF THE
CWA (WHICH IS WHAT IT IS EXPECTED TO DO) ON WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS EAST OF US THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GIVEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY... I BELIEVE EVEN AT THIS TIME FRAME... SNOW
SHOWER ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE CONSISTENT OF
THIS STORM IN THE MODELS IN BOTH TIME AND MODEL TO MODEL... I RAMPED
UP THE POP TO 60 PCT AND WOULD BE WILLING TO GO HIGHER IF NOT FOR
GRID CONSISTENCY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WET AND WINDY DAY IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(652 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PREVAIL AT 630 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WAS AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE I-69 AREAS AND OTHER AREA OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MOVING NORTHEAST. THAT AREA
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING. BY THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING SO FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRIMARY RAIN AREA MOVES IN AROUND 7 PM. THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.
CIGS/VSBY WILL BECOME IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(1015 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011)
RELATIVELY LGT WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN
PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WE GET IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME GALES...
HOWEVER CONSENSUS AMONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN OFFICES IS TO HOLD OFF FOR
THE NSH WATERS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(413 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011)
DEFINITELY SOME CONCERNS IN THE WORLD OF HYDROLOGY THIS MORNING.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA RANGES FROM
LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA/HSA...TO
LOCALLY 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MELT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME RAIN
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. THE SNOW MAY ALSO END UP SOAKING UP THE
RAIN WITH TEMPS NOT GETTING TOO WARM AND A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION
OF THE WARMEST TEMPS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH UP
NORTH...TO LOCALLY OVER 1.5 INCHES DOWN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
MODEL HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THAT IF THE SRN AREAS SAW THE MOST RAIN
POSSIBLE /WELL OVER 2 INCHES/...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN. FOR
NOW... AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES WOULD BRING MANY RIVERS
TO/ABOVE BANKFULL...HOWEVER NOT TO FLOODING. ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 TODAY.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    NJJ
SHORT TERM:  MJS
LONG TERM:   WDM
AVIATION:    WDM
MARINE:      MJS
HYDROLOGY:   NJJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
536 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-051045-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
536 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE MOST PART THE FREEZING RAIN WILL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96.

RAIN WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME AREAS MAY SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THIS MAY RESULT MINOR FLOODING
OF CREEKS AND UNDERPASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY. SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. SOME CREEKS MAY GO
OUT OF THEIR BANKS... SOME ROADS MAY HAVE WATER OVER THEM... SOME
FARM FIELDS MY HAVE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SIMILAR STORM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS...SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE STORM THURSDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-051045-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
536 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL WATER CRAFT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
707 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BALDWIN                 43.90N 85.85W
03/04/2011  E0.00 INCH       LAKE               MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FREEZING RAIN BEGAN AT 640 AM. EVERYTHING ICE COVERED.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 WSW HART              43.68N 86.42W
03/04/2011  M0.10 INCH       OCEANA             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
807 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 AM     FREEZING RAIN    HESPERIA                43.57N 86.04W
03/04/2011  M0.10 INCH       NEWAYGO            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROADS VERY ICY.

&&

MKALEMBK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
827 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BIG RAPIDS              43.70N 85.48W
03/04/2011  E0.00 INCH       MECOSTA            MI   COCORAHS

            TRACE OF FREEZING RAIN.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1045 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 NE MONTAGUE           43.45N 86.32W
03/04/2011  E0.10 INCH       MUSKEGON           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&