Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

LATEST UPDATE...ALL EXCEPT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(415 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011)
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COOLER...SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT WILL BE COOLER AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(415 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011)
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING AS HIGH INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE. A STORM NEAR HOLLAND WENT UP RAPIDLY AS OF 400 PM. IT
REMAINS A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SO PULSE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. VERY HEAVY...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS IN WET MICROBURSTS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MUSKEGON TO ST. JOHNS AT 400 PM WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. STORMS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...STORMS MAY INCREASE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AS
WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY. AS WAS STATED EARLIER...THIS EVENING IS A TOUGH
CONVECTIVE FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY IS A CONCERN WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF
4000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PARAMETERS ON WEDNESDAY DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LESS INSTABILITY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY THOUGH
WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
THREAT UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS.

COOLER...SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVERHEAD. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MIGHT NOT HIT 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(415 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011)
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
CHILLY AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS NE INTO QUEBEC AND BRINGS H8 TEMPS OF 8C OVERHEAD.  MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 70S IN MANY AREAS.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY BY.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE...THEREFORE
WILL ONLY MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(142 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011)
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WAS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH INCREASED MIXING THIS SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD VFR.  HOWEVER
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND ALONG WITH HIGH DEW
POINTS...EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  TRENDS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BRISK SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TAF SITES WILL COME THIS
EVENING FROM ROUGHLY 22Z TO 06Z.  BUT EVEN OUTSIDE THIS TIME FRAME
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS.  SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE STORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...(415 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011)
A FAIRLY BAGGY GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THERE ARE A COUPLE TIMES WHERE THE WIND COMES UP A BIT
(WED MORNING AND AGAIN THURS MORNING) WHICH MAY PUSH WAVES INTO THE
2-3 FOOT RANGE...BUT OVERALL A FAIRLY QUITE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOG
CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT OUT ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIR
RIDES OVER THE COOLER LAKE WATERS. GIVEN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THICK FOG WILL NOT ISSUE A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(415 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011)
THREAT FOR LOCALLY TORRENTIAL HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD
WATCHES AT THIS TIME. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
AT 850MB CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO...GIVEN A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A WARM
FRONT IN THE VICINITY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHUNT OFF TO THE EAST
AS EARLY AS MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
OVER BY 21Z OR SO WEDNESDAY EVENING. USGS GAGE DATA INDICATES THAT
MOST SITES ARE IN THE 50-75 PCT OF NORMAL RANGE...SO THERE THERE IS
SOME ROOM FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE MAINSTEM RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    DUKE
SHORT TERM:  DUKE
LONG TERM:   JK
AVIATION:    JK
MARINE:      DUKE
HYDROLOGY:   DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-220900-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1240 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 96 CORRIDOR.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE SITUATED NEAR INTERSTATE 96 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE FROM 200 PM THROUGH 1000 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 96. ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LMZ844>849-220900-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1240 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO
THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY RESULT IN
SUDDEN CHANGES TO VERY LIMITED VISIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WHITEHALL. ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MEADE DUKE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
711 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 WNW WHITE CLOUD       43.58N 85.79W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       NEWAYGO            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KHOOG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             LAWRENCE                42.22N 86.05W
06/21/2011  M1.00 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KHOOG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
715 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             ATHENS                  42.09N 85.24W
06/21/2011  M1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KHOOG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
718 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JENISON                 42.91N 85.82W
06/21/2011                   OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED ONE FOOT OF STANDING WATER ON BALDWIN ST
            BETWEEN MAIN ST AND COTTONWOOD DR.

&&

KHOOG