Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND MON. MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE TEMPS TNGT
AND THEN AMT OF SNOW ON MON.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES LOCATED OVR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT MOSTLY CLDY SKIES CNTRL
AND EAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVR ERN WY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WNDS OVR THE PLAINS.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WNDS (45 KTS AT 8H) WL BRING GULF MSTR AND
WARMER AIR INTO WI TNGT. MEANWHILE...A SHRTWV TROF IS FCST TO
STRENGTHEN AND DIG SE INTO THE UPR MIDWEST OVRNGT. IN ADDITION...
A 140 KT UPR JET IS PROGGED TO MOV ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH
ITS FAVORED LEFT EXIT RGN MOVG ACROSS THE PLAINS. FINALLY...THE
SFC LOW WL MOV OVR THE NRN PLAINS WITH A CDFNT REACHING NW MN BY
12Z MON. PUTTING THIS ALTOGETHER...EXPECT TO SEE A LRG AREA OF WAA
SNOW TO DVLP OVR THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND MAKE A MOV INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS LATE TNGT. THE SNOW IS TIMED TO REACH CNTRL WI
AROUND 09Z AND THE LKSHR AROUND 12Z...THEREFORE LIKELY POPS WEST
AND CHC POPS EAST SHOULD SUFFICE. THE ONSET OF WAA WL ALLOW TEMPS
TO STEADILY RISE...ESP AFT MIDNGT WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS BY
DAYBREAK.

FAVORABLE ISEN LIFT...Q-G FORCING AND LIFT FROM ADVANCING CDFNT WL
BRING A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS WI ON MON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
FOR A BROAD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS 3 TO 5 INCHES
CLOSER TO LK MI DUE TO MINOR LK ENHANCEMENT/STRONGER FORCING. AFT
COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVY GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TOMAHAWK TO
WAUSAUKEE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE 25-30 DEG RANGE
WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SNOW:WATER RATIO OF AROUND 10:1.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH SPILLS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. 00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE COLD AIR
INTRUSION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS ALSO
TRENDING IN THAT SAME DIRECTION. WILL MODIFY TEMPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

BUT FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL LINGER SNOW DUE TO ONGOING SYSTEM.
NO CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH CAT POPS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF. WILL DIMINISH SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT BUT
CONTINUE FLURRIES OR A SMALL POP MENTION INTO TUESDAY DUE TO
LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY
MOIST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON DRYING
AS THIS FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD SO
WILL DECREASE CLOUDS.

NORTH WINDS PROVIDE A WINDOW OF LES SNOWS OVER NC WI TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS MORE NORTH WITH A SYSTEM PASSING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF IS DRIER WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE
STATE. THE GFS SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. EACH MODEL TRACKS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT THE ARCTIC AIR FROM SURGE SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF A DRY AIR MASS
WITH CLEAR SKIES...SUB ZERO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LIKELY EACH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CLOSER TO CLIMATE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR VS AN ARCTIC SURGE.

MDM RANGE PROGS INDICATE ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE LOW TO TRACK OVER
GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...BUT PROGS NOT INDICATE
MUCH ACCUM WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-CLDS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. AS ISEN LIFT INCREASES OVRNGT...INITIAL LGT SNOW WOULD
LWR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR. AS THE SNOW INCREASES IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON MON...LOOK FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO
DROP MAINLY INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...GUSTY
SOUTH WNDS WL BE PREVALENT BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT MON
EVENING WITH WNDS SHIFTING NORTH AND SUBSIDING.
&&

.MARINE...STG SOUTH WINDS WL DVLP ON MO AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
TO THE ERN GREAT LKS RN AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WL DECREASE MON EVG...HIGH WAVES MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM MON MORNING THRU MON EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037-045.

&&

AK/TDH

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