Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
224 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WITH SOME PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
TIMING OF THE STORMS WL BE DIFFICULT.

STG AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BAND OF WESTERLIES WL REMAIN ACRS THE
CONUS DURING THE FCST PERIOD. TROF WL REMAIN OUT W...WITH RIDGE
POSN NEAR THE FCST AREA. UPR SYSTEMS WL EJECT OUT OF THE TROF FM
TIME TO TIME. UPR RIDGE WL TEND TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD...AS AN UPR SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE TROF PHASES WITH
ENERGY DROPPING SWD ACRS CANADA...RESULTING IN DEEP VORTEX OVER
WRN HUDSON BAY.

THIS IS A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LATE MAY...AND WL LIKELY RESULT
IN AOA NORMAL PCPN AMNTS FOR THE PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMPS WL BE
CONTROLLED BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WX SYSTEMS....BUT THE LCN
OF THE FCST AREA NEAR THE LNGWV RIDGE POSN WL LIKELY RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TNGT/WED. SVR THREAT...WHICH NOW APPEARS MARGINAL AT
BEST...WL END EARLY. MAIN CONCERN IS STG GRADIENT WINDS. WL GET
SOME GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITIERA...BUT WITH SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ALREADY OUT AND STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NOW...WL CONT TO HANDLE
WITH SPS/S AND FOREGO ADVISORY. HANDLING MARINE SITN WITH SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING.

GUSTINESS WL DIE BACK SOME AFTER SUNSET...BUT WITH CAA AND STG
WINDS ALOFT...THERE WL BE SOME GUSTINESS FROM TIME TO TIME TNGT.
EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY TOMORROW AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...WED NGT THROUGH NEXT TUE. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSN OF THE FRONT. IT IS LIKELY TO START BACK NWD THU/THU NGT.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION SW OF THE AREA WED NGT...AND
SEVERAL DEVELOPED AN MCS NE OF THE AREA THU NGT. LOOKS LIKE THE
FCST AREA WL SPEND FRI IN THE WARM SECTOR...BEFORE FRONT SAGS SWD
AGAIN. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW ON LCN OF FRONT AND TIMING OF PCPN
DURING THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER
GUIDANCE...AS HIGH UPR HEIGHTS AND MILD 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST
READINGS SHOULD BE ON THE MILD SIDE.
&&

.AVIATION...DROPPED EXPLICIT LLWS IN THE TAFS AS EXPECT ENOUGH
MIXING TO CONT ALL NGT TO KEEP SOME GUSTINESS IN THE SFC WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SKOWRONSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
311 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-011100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
311 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS
COULD GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DENSE FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE AND BAY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

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