Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Green Bay, WI

772 
WWUS53 KGRB 191955
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

WIC041-085-125-192030-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-110819T2030Z/
FOREST WI-ONEIDA WI-VILAS WI-
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
VILAS...NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA AND NORTHWESTERN FOREST COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EAGLE RIVER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA...EXTREME
  NORTHWESTERN FOREST AND SOUTHEASTERN VILAS COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4591 8927 4605 8920 4598 8871 4577 8898
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 302DEG 15KT 4595 8916
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MPC

981 
WWUS53 KGRB 192010
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
310 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

WIC041-085-125-192020-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-110819T2030Z/
FOREST WI-ONEIDA WI-VILAS WI-
310 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN VILAS...
NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA AND NORTHWESTERN FOREST COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4591 8927 4605 8920 4598 8871 4577 8898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 302DEG 15KT 4592 8908

$$

MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TWO UPPER JETS WERE EVIDENT
AT 500MB AT 09Z TODAY. ONE WAS ALONG THE U.S. CANADA BORDER AND
THE OTHER WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN IS NOT IN THE FAVORABLE PORTION OF EITHER OF THESE JETS
TODAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MORE NORTHERN JET DOES
APPEAR TO PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HOWEVER.

THERE IS VERY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB FOR AWHILE TODAY BUT
THEN COLD ADVECTION LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY MODEST. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE IS REALLY NO STRONG FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONTS RARELY MOVE THROUGH DRY AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR
AWHILE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE NORTHERN UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT THU. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS
TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN TO INCLUDE SML CHC POPS AS NW FLOW TO
PREVAIL THRU MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART
TO BE AT OR ABV NORMAL THRU THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

IT APRS THAT NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE DEPARTED CDFNT TO THE SE
AND THE NXT SHRTWV DIVING SEWD THRU THE BROAD UPR TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/NRN GREAT LKS. MSTR NEVER DOES GET SCOURED OUT
THO AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLDS OVER THE
FCST AREA THRU THE NGT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPR 40S/
LWR 50S NORTH TO THE UPR 50S LAKESIDE.

WHILE THE CORE OF THE UPR TROF TO BE LOCATED TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS ACROSS WI WITH A SHEARED SHRTWV
MOVING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE BADGER STATE. MDLS INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG AND LI'S DOWN TO AROUND
ZERO BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENUF OF A PCPN THREAT EXISTS SUCH
THAT LOW END CHC POPS ARE NECESSARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.
GUID VALUES ARE CLOSE FOR MAX TEMPS...THUS PLENTY OF MID 70S
EXPECTED.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PCPN TO QUICKLY END SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
LINGERED A SLGT CHC POP OVER FAR NE WI INTO THE EVENING...
OTHERWISE HAVE GONE DRY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
MORE SW BY MON AND THIS LEADS TO THE ONSET OF WEAK WAA OVER WI.
00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MDLS NOW GENERATE PCPN OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE WAA APRS TO BE TOO STG IN THESE MDLS COMPARED TO
THE UKMET AND ECMWF. JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF MSTR TRANSPORT OR
INSTABILITY/LIFT TO WARRANT ADDING A POP AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE 75 TO 80 DEG RANGE ON MON.

HARD TO FIND A TRIGGER FOR ANY PCPN HEADED INTO TUE AS UPR HGTS
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LKS. THIS IS DUE TO THE NE
CONUS UPR TROF LIFTING OUT AND ALLOWING FOR THE ROCKIES UPR RDG TO
EXPAND EWD A BIT. 8H TEMPS RISE INTO THE +15 TO +18C RANGE WHICH
WL BRING MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S.

NUMBER OF QSTNS AS TO PCPN CHCS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK AS
THE MDLS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NXT SHRTWV
TROF/CDFNT...AMT OF MSTR RETURN AHD OF THE FNT AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WED
INTO WED NGT WOULD PRESENT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN...THUS
CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CIGS TODAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RDM/KALLAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-201000-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
457 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM ANY OF
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-201000-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
457 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

RDM/AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

WIZ005-011-191930-
FOREST-VILAS-
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN VILAS COUNTY...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOULDER JUNCTION...   LAND O LAKES...       PHELPS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS TO BE BLOWN OVER. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
150 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     HAIL             BOULDER JUNCTION        46.11N 89.63W
08/19/2011  M1.00 INCH       VILAS              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

BERSCH