River Flood Warning 22, NWS Green Bay, WI

389 
WGUS83 KGRB 301139
FLSGRB

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY, WI 
639 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN UPPER 
WISCONSIN...

  WOLF RIVER AT NEW LONDON AFFECTING OUTAGAMIE AND WAUPACA COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS ADVISED WALKING NEAR RIVERBANKS.

&&

WIC087-135-301209-
/O.CAN.KGRB.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-110630T1800Z/
/NEWW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
639 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE WOLF RIVER AT NEW LONDON.
* AT 5:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9.0 FEET.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL TO 8.7 FEET BY NOON FRIDAY.
* AT 9.0 FEET...WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE...THERE IS MINOR URBAN FLOODING 
  IN THE NEW LONDON AREA INCLUDING PFIEFER PARK.  

&&

RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR SOME BUT NOT ALL RIVER GAGING
LOCATIONS. THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT PAST
PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ETC..AND PREDICTED
FUTURE 24 HOUR BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
 
(STAGES IN FT.)        BANK-      LATEST          FORECAST STAGES
-               FLOOD  FULL      OBSERVED         ...FOR 7 AM...
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE    STAGE/TIME        FRI  SAT  SUN  MON
NEW LONDON       9.0   7.0   8.94 05 AM 06/30    8.8  8.6  8.4  8.1

-                   HIGHEST      24 HOUR CHANGE
-                   OBSERVED     IN RIVER STAGE
-                   STAGE IN      (FT.) UP TO      HIGHEST STAGE
-                   THE LAST    LATEST OBSERVED     FORECAST IN
-                   7 DAYS          STAGE           NEXT 7 DAYS
NEW LONDON       8.97  08 PM 06/29    0.01       8.90 07 AM 06/30

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY/TONIGHT/THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. MAIN CHALLENGE TO THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST BEGINS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

RETURN FLOW WAA INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE H8 WARM FRONT SLIDES OVER THE
STATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WHILE THE CAPPING EDGE WORKS
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE LIKELY CAPPING THE
REST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. INCREASED POPS TO CHC
CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE WITH
INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. PROGGED SHORT WAVE SLIDES OVER THE
RIDGE TOWARD THURSDAY AND SAT IMAGERY/RADAR APPEARS TO HAVE A BEAD
ON THIS FEATURE AS IT WORKS OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG WAA PATTERN LATE TONIGHT...ALSO INCREASED
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL FOR LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
SOME POTENTIAL OF NEAR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH THE PRIMARY LOCATION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
CAPPING EDGE AND LLJ.

MAX TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION ON THURSDAY BUT
STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY AS THE WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WEAK TROUGHING THEN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO
SUNDAY.  THE 18Z GFS IS TOO STRONG WITH SEVERAL FEATURES...SO WILL
BEGIN USING THE ECMWF/GEM FOR THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SW LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL DRAW HOT AND HUMID AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
STATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  850MB AND 925MB TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER AND UPPER
20S RESPECTIVELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL REACH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL RAISE TEMPS ON FRIDAY...AS 925MB
TEMPS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT MID 90S FOR HIGHS.  COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BUT DESPITE THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...LACK OF MID
AND UPPER SUPPORT AND POSSIBILITY OF A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A
DETRIMENT FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP THE VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.  THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THOUGH TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A
NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT.  SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY AT LEAST IN THE MID
80S...POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.  THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT WILL START
RETURNING NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.  WILL SEE A
HIGHER CHANCE OF POPS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND WILL ARRANGE POPS ACCORDINGLY.  PRECIP POTENTIALLY LINGERS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO GROUND FOG WILL PERSIST
TO AROUND 14Z...OTHER VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT ISOLD MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TDH/MPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
556 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-301100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
556 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE STATE. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS LIKELY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES INTO
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

COLD FRONTS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS IS SMALL AT THIS TIME...AND
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-301100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
556 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

TH/MPC