Frost Advisory 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

567 
WWUS73 KGRB 160301
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1001 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...FROST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...

.A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST.

WIZ030-035-036-045-161200-
/O.CON.KGRB.FR.Y.0001.110516T0800Z-110516T1200Z/
MARATHON-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUSHARA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...
STEVENS POINT...WAUTOMA
1001 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY. 

* WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO THE MIDDLE 30S ARE
  EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

* THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FROST TO
  DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED...LOW LYING AREAS. SENSITIVE
  PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE DAMAGED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
KIECKBUSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
450 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

UPPER LOWS OVER WESTERN IA AND OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER AROUND EACH OTHER THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER AREA AT SURFACE AND ALOFT. FORECAST CONCERNS
THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

GRADIENT OVER AREA TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF DAY BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKES.
VAD/PROFILERS INDICATING LLVL WINDS APPEARED TO HAVE PEAKED PAST
FEW HOURS AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH
NORTHEAST DIRECTION EXPECT STRONG WINDS INTO GRB...FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE THROUGH MUCH OF DAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAST WINDS WILL
BACK OFF TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ZONES. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE...MAKING FROST THREAT NIL. GIVEN PAST PERFORMANCE OF MODELS
THINK WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OR BE LESS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE. WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S CENTRAL WI AND NEAR 30 NORTH
CENTRAL RAISED FROST CONCERNS TO HIGHER LEVEL...THOUGH WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINES IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR YESTERDAY...ACTUALLY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
WITH MANY SITES STILL NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST...MID 40S NORTH.
GIVEN EXPECTED SUN AND WARMER START HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A FEW FOR
TODAY. STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMS....

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY
NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE OR FROST IS EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF
A MARINETTE TO OSHKOSH LINE AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO
THE 20S TO AROUND 30. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCLUDING DOOR COUNTY...AREAS OF FROST IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE BAY
AND LAKE AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST.
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WIND SHOULD PREVENT A FROST ACROSS DOOR
COUNTY. ON TUESDAY...A SUNNY DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT COOLER BY THE BAY AND LAKE
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING ENERGY ENTERING A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND RETROGRADE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARDS WISCONSIN. LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS CANADIAN
AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE WITH SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ECMWF WAS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH RIDGING OVER WISCONSIN THAT WOULD KEEP US DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS WAS MUCH QUICKER IN BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE TIME BEING.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES IF CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT ARRIVE FROM THE EAST COAST RETROGRADING UPPER LOW. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE REGION...THOUGH STILL HAVE GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER STATE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO EXIT THE AREA TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 40 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE
LLWS FOR TAFS THIS MORNING. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...DIMINISHING WEST LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EVENING
IN THE EAST.
&&

.MARINE...MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE PEAKING AT THIS
TIME. AFTER LULL LAST EVENING...FEW MARINE SITES ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 35KT RANGE. SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
COMING OFF SOUTHERN BAY WITH GRB PEAKING AT 36KTS LAST HOUR. EXPECT
WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK DOWN THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/ECKBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-161530-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND BAY. ANYONE WHO HAS ALREADY PURCHASED
COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THE
PLANTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-161530-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS.  CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

MPC