Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...
309 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

CONTINUING FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FLOW OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROAD/MEAN TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC.
THE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THAT IS HELPING TO PUSH AN UPPER SYSTEM
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THE JET AND MID LEVELS. NAM WAS HANDLING
THE BOUNDARIES/WIND FIELD THE BEST...ESPECIALLY THE ONE THAT IS NEAR
OUR SOUTHERN EDGE. MODELS TENDED TO INITIALIZE A LITTLE COOL ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TONIGHT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KANSAS PUSHED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWED STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. THAT
BOUNDARY HAS PULLED BACK/MIXED OUT SOME TO THE EAST AS THE DAY HAS
PROGRESSED AND IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. ALSO A
SURFACE TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED NEAR THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST EDGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM ON THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY AS WELL. LITTLE TO NO LIFT ALOFT AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER ON IS OVER NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. BY LATER IN THE NIGHT THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION COULD
BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. ALL IN ALL IN
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE NIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START IN THE WEST
EARLY THEN WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SLOW MOVEMENT AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ADD HEAVY
RAINFALL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET LOOKS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAIN MID
LEVEL LIFT SHOULD NOT COME IN UNTIL DURING THE NIGHT AND WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER CHANCE THERE. BECAUSE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER...WILL GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF.
WEAK ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LEAVES IN THE MORNING AND ANOTHER COMES
IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A FRONT COMES DURING THIS PERIOD...
PROBABLY DURING THE DAY. THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE FRONT WAY DOWN WITH
OTHER MODELS PUSHING THROUGH ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE TIMING PROBLEMS/POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE. CHANCE DURING THE LOOKS LIKE
IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THINK THE MAIN CHANCE
WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT BUT MID AND UPPER LIFT COULD SET OFF
STORMS IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. WILL BROADBRUSH CHANCES POPS
ONCE AGAIN. AGAIN BECAUSE OF LINGERING CONVECTION...CLOUD COVER...
AND ANTICIPATED POSITION OF INCOMING FRONT...WILL TEND TO GO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT WILL NOT SEE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY PEAK HEATING TIME.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...START THE DAY IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
REGIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
THE JET WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL PAINT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE
FOR NOW. JET CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH
THE BRUNT OF ITS LIFT OVER THE NORTH OR NORTH OF THE AREA. LOOKS
A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WITH ACTUALLY THE STRONGER
ONE MOVING IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS HINTING AT OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING BACK NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. WILL PUT IN A LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA. DUE TO EXPECTED
WIND FIELD AND PROBABLE CLOUD COVER...WILL TEND TO GO A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE STARTS DURING THIS PERIOD
AND A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SHOWING UP. IT INVOLVES HOW
THEY HANDLE A WEAKER TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER
TROUGH THAT COMES OUT OF CANADA AND DIGS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF IS WEAKER/SHALLOWER/SLOWER WITH ITS
FEATURES THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND
SLOWER FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT SLOWING
TREND.

ENSEMBLES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE SPREAD OUT WITH TWO
TO THREE SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION AND
MORE TOWARD A WEAKER/MORE OPEN WAVE WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IF HAD TO CHOOSE. HPC BLENDED SOLUTION GOES IN
THAT DIRECTION AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION
THE MODELS SHOW A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. AREA
WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME AFTER A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG WEST TO EAST UPPER JET MOVES
INTO THE AREA OR IS NEAR THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ALSO WILL HAVE
HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL POPS ARE
ABOVE CLIMO AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALSO WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE WITH SOME RECOVERY POSSIBLE
BY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
442 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...COMPLICATED SCENARIO THIS TAF PERIOD. TSTORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR KGLD WITH MORE ON THE WAY FROM CO. HRRR/WRF MODELS
SHOWING MORE DEVELOPMENT AROUND KGLD THROUGH SHORT TERM WITH TSRA
MOVING ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. AFTERWARDS...UPLSLOPE WINDS
WILL LEAD TO LOW CIGS AT KGLD AND AND LOW VIS AT KMCK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AFTER CIG/VIS DISSIPATE...VFR CONDS XPECTED THROUGH
REST OF PERIOD.

BAS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1057 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051700-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1057 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2011 /1157 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
729 PM MDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             9 SSW GOODLAND          39.22N 101.78W
08/04/2011  M1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CORRECTED FOR LOCATION

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
812 PM MDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 S SHARON SPRINGS     38.75N 101.75W
08/04/2011  E60 MPH          WALLACE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
826 PM MDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             9 SSW GOODLAND          39.23N 101.77W
08/04/2011  M1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
832 PM MDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HEAVY RAIN       11 NNE GOODLAND         39.49N 101.63W
08/04/2011  M1.71 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STARTED RAINING AT 0100Z

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
844 PM MDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       15 N GOODLAND           39.57N 101.71W
08/04/2011  M4.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT HIGHWAYS 80 AND 21

&&

BAS

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