Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

.UPDATE...
1038 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

TRICKY TEMPERATURE SITUATION ACROSS THE CWA AS MORNING CLOUDS AND
FOG HAVE CREATED COOL POCKETS WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN NEARBY LOCATIONS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS DIMINISHING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING. WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 80S ALREADY...HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHEAST CORNER. MCCOOK IS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S SO KEPT THAT
AREA JUST UNDER 90 FOR A HIGH. ALSO RAISED CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LIFTING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CWA AS WELL AS INSTABILITY
AND PLENTIFUL MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.
AM THINKING THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER AREAS WEST
OF A BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THAT
AREA AND MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE CWA.

JTL
&&

.DISCUSSION...
247 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY SOME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL EXCEED 90 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DECREASING.
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES. PLAN TO
HAVE FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING SO POPS WILL BE
NIL. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO
WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
ADVERTISED TO PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. PLAN TO
INCREASE POPS TO 40 PERCENT POPS. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. THE NEXT WAVE COMES THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO COME THROUGH EARLY SO THAT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL AFFECT MAINLY EAST OF THE COLORADO LINE.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE CHANCE IN KANSAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE NEXT WAVE PROVIDES
FORCING OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING THEN
SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES SATURDAY EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE TWO PERIODS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME TODAY/FRIDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S. LOWER 90S SHOULD BE REACHED ON SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 30 C. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
65 IN THE WESTERN FA TO NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1144 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. JUST PRIOR
TO TAF ISSUANCE KMCK REPORTED MVFR CEILINGS. WENT AHEAD AND
PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THAT UNTIL 21Z. NEXT ISSUE FOR BOTH SITES
WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. KMCK LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID INCLUDE A CB GROUP AS THE
BETTER ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAR AWAY AND MEAN WIND WOULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARD KMCK. BETTER CHANCES FOR KMCK WILL BE AFTER 0Z THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR KGLD CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A
CONVERGENCE AREA AND DEVELOPING CUMULUS NEAR COLBY. WITH LITTLE
TO NO INHIBITION IN PLACE PUT A CB GROUP IN AT 19Z WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FOR 21Z TO 0Z AS ENVIRONMENT LOOKS BETTER FOR CONVECTION
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT BOTH SITES WILL BE DEALING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG...BUT ONLY LOWERED CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR
NOW.

JTL
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1057 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051700-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1057 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2011 /1157 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
108 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

KSZ002-NEZ080-041930-
HITCHCOCK-RAWLINS-
208 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HITCHCOCK
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 9 MILES NORTH OF BLAKEMAN.
THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3985 10097 3984 10140 4000 10139 4001 10132
      4006 10132 4009 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 180DEG 1KT 3994 10118

JLUNDQUI