Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...
307 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED A
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. PATCHY FOG
WAS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH KHLC DOWN TO MVFR VISBY AS OF 08Z.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE RETURN TO DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE
DAY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT/PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MID-
WEEK.

PATCH FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW VISBY
OBS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4SM...NOT ANTICIPATING
THE NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BEYOND
THAT...THE HEAT RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER A FEW
DAYS OF MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK AREA-WIDE WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HEAT-
RELATED HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND/OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN CRITERIA BEING MET.

STRONG H7 THETA-E ADVECTION SETS UP OVER PRIMARILY THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH H85-H7
TROUGH NOTED FROM WY INTO CO. LACK OF STRONG FORCING MECHANISM TO
INITIATE CONVECTION PRECLUDES ME FROM INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BUT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE SOMETHING POP NEAR OR
IN THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MOVING INTO MONDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. JUST ENOUGH TO PUSH
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTY OVER THE NEEDED CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGHLIGHT FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES BUT CONSIDERED GOING ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER WEST.
HAVE OPTED TO NOT DO THAT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AS A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER BROAD-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME. HAVE
BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE.

NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1130 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL NEED TO WATCH OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS AGAIN FOR
REDUCED VIS POTENTIAL AT KMCK BUT BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IS VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHERWISE...WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
15G20KTS THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10KTS BY SUNSET.

050
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ004-016.

NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

KSZ016-311945-
GRAHAM-
213 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAKEENEY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9961 3913 9981 3913 9982 3932 9971
      3927 9960 3914 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 210DEG 9KT 3910 9970

050