Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
321 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED A
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER
COLORADO AND WYOMING. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE AND FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TRI-STATE REGION SITS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE.

CONVECTION ON GOING OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE EASTWARD
REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VICINITY BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY ELEVATED WITH 1500-2000 J/K MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12K FT...LARGE
HAIL THREAT WOULD BE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT BUT CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15KTS WHICH COULD YIELD AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN AREAS
WHERE LITTLE PRECIP HAS BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO
NOT PLANNING A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING.

REMNANT CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THERE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING BRINGING A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THERE IS A
SLIM POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE TO
SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DISSIPATING. RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING H85/H7 TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
500 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO ATTM. XPECT
TO IMPACT TERMINALS WITH A PERIOD OF TSRA THEN A PERIOD OF
SHRA...ENDING BEFORE 12Z. AS ALWAYS WITH TSRA...POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS SHOULD HEAVIER PRECIP COME OVER
TERMINALS. TOWARDS DAYBREAK...POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
MODELS IN DEPICTING LOWER CIGS...HAVE CHOSEN TO TAKE WORSE CASE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.

BAS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1019 AM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1019 AM MDT WED JUL 6 2011 /1119 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BETWEEN THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

CJS/MB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
629 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

COZ090-070100-
YUMA COUNTY-
629 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 625 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OTIS...OR 12 MILES EAST OF AKRON...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10251 3982 10261 3985 10281 4035 10280
      4036 10279 4044 10279 4044 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 281DEG 21KT 4012 10297

JLUNDQUI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
823 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-070300-
CHEYENNE-KIT CARSON COUNTY-SHERMAN-YUMA COUNTY-
823 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 817 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BEECHER ISLAND TO 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HALE TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF BURLINGTON...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 10162 3913 10191 3914 10238 3953 10208
      3991 10213 4001 10181 4000 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 243DEG 20KT 3988 10202 3958 10197
          3925 10223

JLUNDQUI

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