Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THEN NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING THEN
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING MOISTURE AND JET
DYNAMICS MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THEN ON TOP OF THE AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST/WEST TONIGHT INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM ADVANCES EAST. FOR MONDAY WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXITING MONDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKELY
TO EXCEED AN INCH WITH PERHAPS TWO INCHES...GENERALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.

UNDER THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S...FURTHER EAST BY HILL CITY
LOW 80S EXPECTED AS THEY WILL SEE MORE SUN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE
WINDY FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED. FOR
WEDNESDAY A TAD WARMER WITH 80-85 ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOKS PRETTY DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN NOT REAL HIGH.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
1132 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. BY EARLY EVENING A WARM
FRONT WILL BY LOCATED NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY AM THINKING THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT REACH KGLD UNTIL 0Z. HOWEVER PLACED VCTS AT
22Z IN CASE THEY MOVE IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED. KMCK WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA AFTER 0Z. AFTER 6Z THE
CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP FOR BOTH SITES.
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF LOWERING
CONDITIONS BELOW MVFR FOR NOW.

JTL

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
235 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011 /335 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS YUMA COUNTY COLORADO
AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
447 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NEZ079>081-192315-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
547 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...HITCHCOCK
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND RED WILLOW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...

AT 443 PM MDT/543 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF HAIGLER TO MAX TO MCCOOK...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 10020 4001 10205 4035 10205 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 252DEG 15KT 4013 10195 4016 10137
          4025 10063

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