Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Goodland, KS

705 
WWUS53 KGLD 170347
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
947 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

KSC039-NEC145-170357-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-110617T0415Z/
DECATUR KS-RED WILLOW NE-
1047 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN RED WILLOW AND
NORTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3974 10016 3981 10018 4001 10018 4001 9963
      4000 9962 3968 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 276DEG 43KT 4028 9993 3994 9990
          3971 9995
$$

KSC137-170415-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-110617T0415Z/
NORTON KS-
1047 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
NORTON COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HOLBROOK TO 8 MILES NORTH OF NORTON TO 7 MILES NORTH OF 
LENORA...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THE WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL 
AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CALVERT AND ALMENA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 128.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 10016 3981 10018 4001 10018 4001 9963
      4000 9962 3968 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 276DEG 43KT 4028 9993 3994 9990
          3971 9995
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN
$$

JRM

377 
WWUS53 KGLD 170359
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

KSC137-170409-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-110617T0415Z/
NORTON KS-
1059 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN NORTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3974 10016 3981 10018 4001 10018 4001 9963
      4000 9962 3968 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 276DEG 43KT 4026 9974 3992 9971
          3969 9977
$$

JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...
330 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO WITH CUMULUS FORMING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AT
THE SURFACE WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH A FRONT
AND DRY LINE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES WILL BE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORTWAVES
MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AS AREA
COMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEST COUPLING OF LARGE SCALE AND
MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. DURING THE EVENING HOURS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA AND BECOME A BIT MORE GENERAL IN COVERAGE
WITH INCREASING LLJ PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE WILL ADD IN SLIGHT POPS BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST ZONES. A SECONDARY AREA OF
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER WHERE
THE FRONT AND DRY LINE INTERACT TO INITIATE HIGH-BASED STORMS IN
THIS AREA. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS
AREA AS IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF FA BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS IN THIS
AREA AS WELL SO I/VE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS HERE AS WELL. DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT AT THIS TIME IN ANTICIPATION OF
POST-CONVECTIVE MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MORNING
CLOUD COVER...AND WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE INSOLATION AND BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO INTRODUCE POPS
ONCE AGAIN IN THIS AREA. MEAN 0-6KM WINDS WOULD TAKE THESE STORMS
EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BUT INSTABILITY WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD. THUS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
FAR EASTWARD STORMS THAT FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE ABLE
TO SURVIVE WHEREAS STORMS WHICH FORM FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL/PALMER DIVIDE AREA OF COLORADO SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
AT LEAST A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE SW PART OF FA AND HAVE
THUS HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF HERE AS WELL.

IN THE EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS CLOSED H5 LOW DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DIVERGENT IN THEIR DEPICTIONS
OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW AND HAVE THUS ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

50
&&

.AVIATION...
520 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PLENTY OF WX EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD...THUS
SOME UNCERTAINITY EXISTS IN THIS PERIOD. TSRA ONGOING IN CENTRAL
CO AND SE WY/W NE PUSHING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT ON HANDLING OF TSRA...SO...WILL INCLUDE CB/S AND
TEMPO -TSRA AT BOTH TERMINALS AND TAKE WORST CASE CONDS. ONCE
TSRA/S CLEAR TERMINALS...NEXT EVENT WILL BE FOG/STRATUS AT BOTH
LOCATIONS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PICKS THIS UP...HOWEVER...SOME
DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON TIMING/DURATION. AGAIN...WILL TAKE WORST
CASE CONDS AND HAVE LIFR AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 08/09Z THROUGH
16Z...THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LOW CIGS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AM
AND BECOME GUSTY. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTIES EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD
AND HAVE OPTED FOR WORST CASE CONDS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

BAS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ041-042.

NE...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
235 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011 /335 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR EASTERN COLORADO...AND AREAS IN
WESTERN KANSAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXTEND GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
JOES COLORADO TO SAINT FRANCIS KANSAS TO MCCOOK NEBRASKA.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO...GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OTHERWISE THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM MDT (6 PM CDT)
GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM JOES COLORADO TO SAINT FRANCIS KANSAS
TO MCCOOK NEBRASKA.

007

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
759 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

COZ091-170215-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
759 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 754 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF BURLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 10237 3957 10205 3945 10204 3937 10206
      3934 10228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 249DEG 20KT 3945 10221

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
809 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             2 SW PARKS              40.02N 101.76W
06/16/2011  E0.75 INCH       DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
828 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

NEZ080-170300-
HITCHCOCK-
928 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAX...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 10083 4001 10133 4035 10132 4035 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 248DEG 26KT 4014 10131

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
933 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

KSZ002-170300-
RAWLINS-
933 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 931 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF MAX...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AND WINDS MAY OCCUR
WELL AHEAD OF ANY OF THE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 10074 3968 10075 3969 10141 4000 10141
      4000 10137
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 278DEG 26KT 3998 10136

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
851 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     TSTM WND GST     BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.53W
06/16/2011  M59 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   MESONET

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
908 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MCCOOK             40.22N 100.59W
06/16/2011  M60 MPH          RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

&&

JMARTIN