Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Goodland, KS

789 
WWUS53 KGLD 140020
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
620 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

COC017-140030-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-110614T0030Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
620 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA...HOWEVER PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3904 10254 3904 10212 3870 10212 3869 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 217DEG 31KT 3893 10216
$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
444 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
325 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW.
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MODELS WERE NOT
QUITE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THE ECMWF WAS DOING SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN THE NAM. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE DOING BETTER THAN
EVERYONE ELSE.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE/PV ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OF SOUTHERN JET GRADUALLY GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE UKMET/NAM THE LEAST FAVORABLE OF THE BUNCH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS WERE INDICATING YESTERDAY. THEREFORE
ANY LOW LEVEL FOCUS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH TODAY THAN INDICATED
YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME...
AREA IS VERY CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS WELL.

AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFT
INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INHIBITION DECREASES BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE RARE
INSTANCES WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS
IN THE MORNING. THAT WILL BE WHEN THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET AND SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE DURING THE
EVENING.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE TO NO LIFT DURING THE DAY
WITH AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WILL KEEP IT DRY DURING THE DAY.
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE SO
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL AGAIN TREND
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE SINCE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST BEGINNING TO
PULL AWAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY SO
KEPT IT DRY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF SO DID NOT CHANGE. DID WARM UP MAXES A FEW DEGREES
BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THESE TO BE TOO WARM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ECMWF DOES REMAIN SLIGHTLY DEEPER
THAN THE GFS. DO LIKE WHAT THEY ARE SHOWING. AGAIN MODELS TRY OR DO
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALMOST EVERY SINGLE PERIOD. MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE IN THE SHORT TERM IN RESOLVING SHORTWAVE DETAILS SO TO TRY
TO RESOLVE FURTHER OUT IS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS/DETAILS DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS. SO BECAUSE OF THAT AND UNCERTAINTY DID NOT CHANGE MUCH.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ALOFT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE IN WHERE THEY PUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS NEAR OUR
AREA.

SO DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION YOU BUY...IT COULD BE VERY HOT OR
MUCH COOLER. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND EXPERIENCE IN THIS PATTERN...
AM BELIEVING THAT A LITTLE COOLER SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING MORE
CORRECT. THE OPERATIONAL MEX HAS BEEN THE WARMEST MEMBER WITH THE
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING COOLER CONDITIONS. TENDED TO GO THAT WAY BUT WHO
KNOWS AT THIS POINT. KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. MADE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRY DUE TO A VERY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
444 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE CAP ALOFT...POSITION OF FRONT...AND
CURRENT STORM MOVEMENT...EXPECTING THE STORMS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LIFR RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH CONDITIONS DECREASING AFTER 06Z. KGLD WILL IMPROVE
BEFORE KMCK IN THE MORNING AS WINDS AND MIXING INCREASE...AND DRIER
AIR IS MOVED TOWARD THE TERMINAL.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1032 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141400-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1032 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2011 /1132 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM
THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
409 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

COZ091-132230-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
409 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 408 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 10 MILES SOUTH OF THURMAN...OR
14 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLAGLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 10316 3957 10316 3958 10302 3945 10289
      3932 10316 3946 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 233DEG 16KT 3945 10323

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

COZ091-132245-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
426 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 423 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THURMAN...OR 13 MILES NORTH
OF FLAGLER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 10316 3957 10316 3958 10310 3957 10295
      3940 10292 3932 10316 3946 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 252DEG 12KT 3948 10312

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