Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Goodland, KS

033 
WWUS53 KGLD 112351
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
551 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

COC063-125-120045-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-110612T0045Z/
KIT CARSON CO-YUMA CO-
551 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YUMA AND
WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 548 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED DAMAGING WINDS OF 
60 MPH IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONE STAR 
TO 6 MILES EAST OF ARICKAREE SCHOOL TO ARRIBA...AND WAS MOVING EAST 
AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YUMA...CLARKVILLE...ABARR...FLAGLER...HEARTSTRONG...ECKLEY...
  JOES...SEIBERT...KIRK...WAUNETA...VONA AND VERNON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 391 AND 412.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND 199.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 244 AND 269.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASSIONALY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 10205 3978 10236 3916 10284 3915 10316
      3957 10316 3958 10281 4044 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 270DEG 21KT 4029 10271 3978 10291
          3930 10328
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN
$$

JLUNDQUI

195 
WWUS53 KGLD 120044
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

COC063-125-120054-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-110612T0045Z/
KIT CARSON CO-YUMA CO-
644 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YUMA AND WESTERN KIT CARSON
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM MDT/745 PM CDT/...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4045 10205 3978 10236 3916 10284 3915 10316
      3957 10316 3958 10281 4044 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 262DEG 22KT 4033 10228 3982 10234
$$

JLUNDQUI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
240 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE
ATLANTIC. MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE FRONT
TENDED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS SHOWED. THE NAM WAS
CLOSEST TO THIS. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL OVER THE
AREA.

TONIGHT...COULD MAKE A CASE FOR A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AROUND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME MAIN FRONT LOOKS TO
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS A SUBTLE BOUNDARY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF US NEAR THAT CONVERGENCE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING TWO DIFFERENT QPF TRENDS. FIRST IS TO THE MAIN
MCS/PRECIP BULLSEYE FURTHER SOUTH. THEY ARE ALSO DEVELOPING A
SECONDARY BULLSEYE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THE RUC
ARE SHOWING TWO DISTINCT PIECES OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM IS
MIRRORING THE RUCS PV FIELD WITH THE RUC ALSO DOING THE SAME THING
WITH THE QPF FIELD. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT
WILL TREND TOWARD THOSE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST MCS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH WITH PROBABLY ENHANCE SOUTHEAST
TO EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA COOLER AND
MORE STABLE. WILL TREND THAT WAY IN THE TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
INDICATIONS OF FOG DUE TO THE UPSLOPE AND INSERTED IN THE WEST
SECTION AT THIS TIME.

NOT CONSIDERING WHAT THE MESOSCALE DOES TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH...IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. ALSO A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY
DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WARM FRONT COMES NORTH AND
THEN THE COLD FRONT BEHIND IT LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE
EXPAND THE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...IN SOME RESPECTS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY. STRONG LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
COULD KEEP A LOT OF A CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION
DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN MORNING POPS THERE. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST UPPER JET WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREAS DURING THE SAME TIME. WOULD HAVE LIKED TO HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT THAT WOULD MAKE ME OUT
OF COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. PLUS MESOSCALE AFFECTS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH SLIGHT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME. SAME SCENARIO FOR THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WITH UPSLOPE WINDS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
WILL GO TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROBLEMATIC FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
IT DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY EASIER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW TO
HANDLE TO THE NEW UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST. DETERMINISTIC PLUS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THE FURTHER WEST AND DEEPER GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF
IS FURTHER EAST AND MORE ROBUST IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES FURTHER
EAST. DESPITE THIS MODEL DATA SHOWING NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...
UPPER JET SUPPORT...AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM SCENARIOS THROUGH THE
WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. AND THIS IS NOT EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR ANY
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THIS SETUP.

IT IS REALLY HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN WE WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SO TENDED TO BROADBRUSH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH A LOT
OF THE PERIOD AND PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS SETUP...TENDED TO
GO BELOW THE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
505 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM NEARBY STORMS
MAY LEAD TO WIND SHIFTS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE EAST OF KGLD BY 04Z...WITH STORMS CONTINUING TO BE NEAR
KMCK UNTIL THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECTING
IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES DURING THE MORNING...HOLDING OFF AT
KMCK UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA HAVE MOVED EAST AWAY FROM
THE TERMINAL. MIXING DURING THE DAY WILL BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO
VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011 /1140 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES
CANT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO EASTERN COLORADO. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT WHICH DAY OR AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
405 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

COZ091-092-112215-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
405 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 403 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FIRSTVIEW...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 10279 3926 10238 3885 10252 3893 10293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 198DEG 27KT 3899 10269

JLUNDQUI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             TRIBUNE                 38.47N 101.75W
06/11/2011  E0.75 INCH       GREELEY            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KSZ029-112330-
GOVE-
555 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 553 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE MONUMENT ROCKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 10082 3911 10058 3883 10026 3869 10057
      3870 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 229DEG 21KT 3876 10069

BULLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KSZ027-112330-
WALLACE-
511 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 507 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF WESKAN...OR NEAR WESKAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 10198 3888 10205 3903 10205 3914 10189
      3913 10188 3899 10170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 230DEG 20KT 3895 10196

JLUNDQUI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             ST. FRANCIS             39.77N 101.80W
06/11/2011  M0.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJS