Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Goodland, KS

143 
WWUS53 KGLD 112223
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
423 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KSC071-112245-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110611T2245Z/
GREELEY KS-
423 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GREELEY COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 421 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF HORACE TO
HORACE TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF HORACE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HORACE AND TRIBUNE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3827 10205 3863 10205 3870 10185
      3870 10171 3826 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 222DEG 39KT 3865 10197 3848 10183
          3831 10185
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN
$$

JLUNDQUI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
240 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE
ATLANTIC. MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE FRONT
TENDED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS SHOWED. THE NAM WAS
CLOSEST TO THIS. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL OVER THE
AREA.

TONIGHT...COULD MAKE A CASE FOR A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AROUND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME MAIN FRONT LOOKS TO
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS A SUBTLE BOUNDARY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF US NEAR THAT CONVERGENCE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING TWO DIFFERENT QPF TRENDS. FIRST IS TO THE MAIN
MCS/PRECIP BULLSEYE FURTHER SOUTH. THEY ARE ALSO DEVELOPING A
SECONDARY BULLSEYE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THE RUC
ARE SHOWING TWO DISTINCT PIECES OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM IS
MIRRORING THE RUCS PV FIELD WITH THE RUC ALSO DOING THE SAME THING
WITH THE QPF FIELD. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT
WILL TREND TOWARD THOSE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST MCS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH WITH PROBABLY ENHANCE SOUTHEAST
TO EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA COOLER AND
MORE STABLE. WILL TREND THAT WAY IN THE TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
INDICATIONS OF FOG DUE TO THE UPSLOPE AND INSERTED IN THE WEST
SECTION AT THIS TIME.

NOT CONSIDERING WHAT THE MESOSCALE DOES TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH...IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. ALSO A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY
DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WARM FRONT COMES NORTH AND
THEN THE COLD FRONT BEHIND IT LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE
EXPAND THE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...IN SOME RESPECTS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY. STRONG LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
COULD KEEP A LOT OF A CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION
DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN MORNING POPS THERE. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST UPPER JET WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREAS DURING THE SAME TIME. WOULD HAVE LIKED TO HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT THAT WOULD MAKE ME OUT
OF COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. PLUS MESOSCALE AFFECTS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE ENVIRONMENT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH SLIGHT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME. SAME SCENARIO FOR THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WITH UPSLOPE WINDS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
WILL GO TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROBLEMATIC FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
IT DOES NOT MAKE IT ANY EASIER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW TO
HANDLE TO THE NEW UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST. DETERMINISTIC PLUS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THE FURTHER WEST AND DEEPER GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF
IS FURTHER EAST AND MORE ROBUST IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES FURTHER
EAST. DESPITE THIS MODEL DATA SHOWING NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...
UPPER JET SUPPORT...AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM SCENARIOS THROUGH THE
WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. AND THIS IS NOT EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR ANY
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THIS SETUP.

IT IS REALLY HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN WE WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SO TENDED TO BROADBRUSH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH A LOT
OF THE PERIOD AND PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS SETUP...TENDED TO
GO BELOW THE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
1118 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RESULT SHOULD A STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY
IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR
CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES...WITH
IMPROVEMENT OVER KGLD AFTER 16Z.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011 /1140 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES
CANT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO EASTERN COLORADO. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT WHICH DAY OR AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED.