Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Goodland, KS

814 
WWUS53 KGLD 020215
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
815 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSC137-020226-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110602T0215Z/
NORTON KS-
915 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3984 9964 4000 9983 4001 9982 4001 9963
      4000 9962 3985 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 239DEG 23KT 4000 9965
$$

LOCKHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
605 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
211 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST AS CIN IS ERODED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE AS FORECAST...STRONGEST IN THE NORTH BUT DECREASES TO
LESS THAN 30KTS IN THE SOUTH. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS
EVENING SHEAR WILL IMPROVE AND WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM NO
REAL AREA WILL BE FAVORED...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WHERE THERE IS SOME SUBTLE CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE
WIND FIELD. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY 06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
NOSE OF LLJ MOVES NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON THURSDAY
WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARMING FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AT PEAK HEATING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN. HOWEVER...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT. AN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED STORM WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE...BUT MOS POPS ARE LOW AND QPF
OUTPUT NIL. LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM ANOTHER PROBLEM. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS NOW
SHOW THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AT PEAK
HEATING. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. ON
SATURDAY...FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT ALIGNS WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. POST
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)
211 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WILL BE CENTERED ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...IT WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. AGAIN THE LOCAL AREA WILL FEEL THE FRINGE EFFECTS OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTEROON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...BUT CAN SAY BEST CHANCES WOULD
BE IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUCH PAINTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO GET THE BALL ROLLING.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
605 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED EAST OF KMCK AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. KMCK MAY SEE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF TERMINAL IN THE
NEAR TERM. CONVECTION CHANCES STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY NEAR AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE FROM KIML TO HOXIE KANSAS AND MOVE TOWARDS KMCK.
CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY
MEET MORE FAVORABLE CONDITION AS IT NEARS WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...KGLD MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE
STORMS APPROACH THE TERMINAL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AT EITHER TERMINAL HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH A CB GROUP
FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM THAT MOVES
OVER THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

PMM
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
256 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

THERE REMAINS FIRE WX CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEVELOPING SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW
FAR EAST DRY LINE WILL MIX ON BOTH AFTERNOONS. THINK EASTERN
COLORADO ZONES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH
AFTERNOONS AND WITH MUCH LESS RAINFALL ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO FUELS WILL MORE LIKELY BE CRITICAL THERE AS WELL. WITH
FIRE WX THREAT TIED DIRECTLY TO VERY MESOSCALE
FEATURE...CONFIDENCE NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
WATCH...ALTHOUGH MAY REEVALUATE ONCE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLES/6Z
DATA COMES IN.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1039 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2011 /1139 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
633 PM MDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             DANBURY                 40.04N 100.40W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

007

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
639 PM MDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             DANBURY                 40.04N 100.40W
06/01/2011  M1.25 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

007

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
647 PM MDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             4 N LEBANON             40.11N 100.28W
06/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

007

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
717 PM MDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             5 NW ALMENA             39.94N 99.77W
06/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       NORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

007

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
736 PM MDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             7 N NORTON              39.94N 99.90W
06/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       NORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PMURRAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ004-020215-
NORTON-
847 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF ALMENA...OR NEAR ALMENA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9985 4001 9984 4001 9963 4000 9962
      3980 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 241DEG 24KT 3998 9970

LOCKHART