Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Goodland, KS

854 
WWUS53 KGLD 262224
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011

KSC063-262245-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0289.000000T0000Z-110826T2245Z/
GOVE KS-
524 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GOVE COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 521 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTH OF COLLYER...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF QUINTER...AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN GOVE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 10033 3898 10033 3900 10030 3903 10015
      3878 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 046DEG 10KT 3890 10015
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN
$$

JRM

170 
WWUS53 KGLD 262235
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

KSC063-262245-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0289.000000T0000Z-110826T2245Z/
GOVE KS-
535 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
GOVE COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF COLLYER...OR 14
MILES SOUTH OF QUINTER...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN GOVE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 10029 3899 10031 3900 10023 3901 10016
      3878 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 261DEG 4KT 3887 10018
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN
$$

JRM

134 
WWUS53 KGLD 262242
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011

KSC063-262252-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0289.000000T0000Z-110826T2245Z/
GOVE KS-
542 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GOVE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 445 PM MDT/545 PM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS 
TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3874 10029 3899 10031 3900 10023 3901 10016
      3878 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 261DEG 4KT 3887 10017
$$

JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
233 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NEW MEXICO...EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. ML CAPE OVER MOST OF CWA
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...WITH E/SE LOCATIONS AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SUPPORTED BY LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. NE WINDS
AND INCREASING BL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
OVER NW PARTS OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF CWA. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD FAVOR STRATUS
OVER FOG...SO I HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 90S SAT AND SUN. MOST OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT
WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING BACK OVER REGION. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN WEST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL FORCING ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO. FORECAST SUN
BECOMES COMPLICATED AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT IN TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE EITHER MIDDAY SUN OR LATE SUN EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT
LOCATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS CWA AND HIGH TEMPS SUN. FOR NOW
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN AND SUN EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR FROPA...AND TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS CWA.
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MON.

CWA REMAINS IN WESTERLY FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF RIDGE TUE...BECOMING
SW WED AND THU AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER PACIFIC NW. SW
FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN
30-35C TUE/WED AND AROUND 30C THU. I INCREASED HIGH TEMPS
INCREMENTALLY WITH NEAR 100F OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
TUE/WED. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF CWA THROUGH
THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO
LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE/LIFT. THIS FORECAST CYCLE I LIMITED TSRA
CHANCES TO AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH BEST INSTABILITY/WEAKEST
CAP TUE AND WED. I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUE...AND MAINLY OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF CWA WED EVENING.

ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION BETWEEN
FRI MORNING AND FRI NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NW SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE MODEL SPREAD ON THIS FRONT
SIGNIFICANTLY VARIES BY TIMING/MAGNITUDE. 00Z ECMWF WOULD ACTUALLY
BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S ON FRI...WITH RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL CONUS. GFS BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO
CLIMATE NORMALS...AND KEEPS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN CONUS.
CONSIDERING THIS IS 7 DAYS OUT AND THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH...I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
COOL TEMPS TOO MUCH. FOR NOW I BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THU
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRI...AND DROPPED FRI HIGHS TO JUST ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS IN THE MID 80S.

DR
&&

.AVIATION...
1120 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT IS EXPECTED BY 15Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
NO IMPACT TO AVIATION IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING SHOULD A THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1015 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1015 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011 /1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WIND AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.