Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Goodland, KS

305 
WWUS53 KGLD 100239
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
839 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSC065-100300-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0272.000000T0000Z-110810T0300Z/
GRAHAM KS-
939 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 936 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WAKEENEY...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GOODLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9961 3912 9972 3913 9991 3928 9987
      3930 9960 3914 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 306DEG 27KT 3915 9976
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN
$$

THEDE

844 
WWUS53 KGLD 100256
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
856 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSC065-100306-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0272.000000T0000Z-110810T0300Z/
GRAHAM KS-
956 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3913 9961 3912 9972 3913 9991 3928 9987
      3930 9960 3914 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 306DEG 27KT 3907 9963
$$

THEDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...
252 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST KANSAS.  THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT WAVE A
BIT FURTHER EAST...WITH THE BEST ENVIRONMENT JUST EAST OF THE CWA.
REGARDLESS THE SOME OF THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE PASSING OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  MODELS STILL SHOWING THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND 700 TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER
THE EASTERN CWA TO JUST EAST.  MODEL QPF HAS ALSO INCREASED...BUT
THE MAJORITY OF IT THE HIGHER VALUES APPEAR TO BE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA SO ASIDE FROM ACCOUNTING FOR THE QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME...HAVE
ADJUSTED QPF VALUES DOWN A BIT OVER THE FAR EAST.  DID INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE EVENING AS MODELS HAVE
SHOWN STRONGER LIFTING OVER THAT AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AS THE BETTER LIFT SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...LEFT IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
LIFTING...SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING.  AS IT
DOES CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM EAST TO WEST.  BY MIDDAY THE EASTERN
HALF THE THE CWA MAY HAVE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.  THIS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL EXIT...AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.  MODELS SHOW A PV ANOMALY ALONG THE
KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER DURING THE DAY FOLLOWING THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EAST.  THIS WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE A FEW STORMS BEHIND THE
EXITING STORM SYSTEM.  OVERNIGHT SHIFTED THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.  MODELS SHOW SOME 700MB LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THE
EVENING FOR THOSE AREAS.

THURSDAY KEPT IN THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN CWA WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT.  MODELS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH.  THE SHORT WAVE THEN PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  WITH
A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING DURING THE NIGHT AND 850 MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA AFTER THE SUN SETS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
252 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  FRIDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT.  THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST BORDER DURING THE
EVENING.  HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA.  THROUGH THE WEEKEND MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
OVER THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH THEM.  SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH.  THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE
SPLIT ON WHETHER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS OR ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING TO MOVE THE FRONT AND
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH.  WAS CONSERVATIVE ON CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES MAY BE
WARRANTED...DUE TO THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY
OF RAINFALL CHANCES WITH IT.

JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
525 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. ANY STORMS WHICH HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON EITHER TERMINAL
MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO BACK TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 09Z AND POTENTIALLY A BIT EARLIER...WITH
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

050
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1034 AM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011 /1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY EAST OF A YUMA TO SHARON
SPRINGS LINE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
WITH THE THREAT INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT).

CJS/JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
751 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             1 W HERNDON             39.91N 100.80W
08/09/2011  E1.75 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
752 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNE TASCO             39.43N 100.24W
08/09/2011  E60 MPH          SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

&&

050

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
753 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             HERNDON                 39.91N 100.79W
08/09/2011  E1.75 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
754 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             HERNDON                 39.91N 100.79W
08/09/2011  E2.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

050

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
806 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             MORLAND                 39.35N 100.07W
08/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRAHAM             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
812 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             7 W OBERLIN             39.82N 100.66W
08/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

050