Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Goodland, KS

498 
WWUS53 KGLD 110103
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
703 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

KSC039-153-NEC087-145-110145-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-110711T0145Z/
RAWLINS KS-DECATUR KS-HITCHCOCK NE-RED WILLOW NE-
803 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RED WILLOW...
EASTERN HITCHCOCK...NORTHERN DECATUR AND NORTHEASTERN RAWLINS
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 759 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HERNDON TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NORCATUR...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

A WIND GUST OF 72 MPH WAS MEASURED BY TRAINED SPOTTERS 2 MILES NORTH 
OF TRAER IN DECATUR COUNTY AT 8 PM CDT WITH THIS LINE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CEDAR BLUFFS...TRENTON...DANBURY...LEBANON...CULBERTSON...MCCOOK...
  INDIANOLA AND BARTLEY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 110.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 98.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 10019 4001 10018 3976 10018 3983 10107
      4035 10106 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 217DEG 31KT 3999 10079 3994 10022
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN
$$

JERRYK

011 
WWUS53 KGLD 110115
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
715 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

KSC039-153-NEC087-145-110145-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-110711T0145Z/
RAWLINS KS-DECATUR KS-HITCHCOCK NE-RED WILLOW NE-
815 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RED WILLOW...
EASTERN HITCHCOCK...NORTHERN DECATUR AND NORTHEASTERN RAWLINS
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 813 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES SOUTH OF CULBERTSON...AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA STATE 
LINE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH INTO HITCHCOCK AND RED 
WILLOW COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TRENTON...MCCOOK...INDIANOLA...CULBERTSON AND BARTLEY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 110.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 98.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 10019 4001 10018 3976 10018 3983 10107
      4035 10106 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 177DEG 24KT 4012 10080
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN
$$

024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
215 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

1630Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WITH CWA ON WESTERN PERIPHERY. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALSO NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS..MOVING ALONG FRINGE OF THE
RIDGE. AT THE SFC...TDS IN THE 60S WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH VALUES NEAR 70 ACROSS THE EAST. FLOW WAS FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED AT THE SFC...WITH WEAK CONVERGENT AREA NOTED IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...AND FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO THE SOUTH. MORNING RAOBS
ALSO INDICATED FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN AIR MASS BETWEEN KDDC AND
KLBF...WITH KLBF NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID.

PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS ALONG WITH THE HEAT WILL BE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN TONIGHT AS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE. HARD TO FIND A WHOLE LOT OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT GIVEN H5 RIDGE POSITION...ALTHOUGH THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE AREA OF AT LEAST WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NORTH OF
WARM FRONT PRIOR TO 06Z. THIS AREA ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH BEST
INSTABILITY SO WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING TO
ORGANIZE THINGS...WILL FOCUS HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA.
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO MOST
LIKELY LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE BUT WILL REASSESS AS AFTERNOON
DEVELOPS AND NEW BATCH OF ENSEMBLE DATA IS AVAILABLE.  WITH ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER GREATER THAN 11KFT AND MIXING RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 10
G/KG IN LOW LEVELS...THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE AND
WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY...REALLY HARD TO PIN DOWN AN
AREA TO HEIGHTEN QPF VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY.

MONDAY-MONDAY-NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE HOWEVER...WILL BE MOVEMENT OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AROUND RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS. TROUGH DOES
NOT REALLY APPEAR TO BE IN A POSITION TO BRING MUCH FORCED ASCENT TO
THE AREA...AND BY 00Z TUES PV ADVECTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAY
CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE  ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. WHILE NOT THINKING
THERE WILL BE A GREAT RESPONSE TO THIS...AM A LITTLE HESITANT TO NOT
MENTION A PRECIP THREAT AS IT NEARS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ALONG AND
NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE DECENT INSTABILITY...MODEST CAPPING
AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND WITH
ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO HIGHLIGHTING NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES...THINK INCREASING POPS IS IN ORDER. WITH DEEP WARM
LAYER...MOIST AIRMASS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY ALSO SEE ANOTHER
HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SFC LOW/FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING NORTH OF
THE FRONT BEING TWO AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS PERIODS...PV FIELDS OF BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 00Z WED AND 15Z
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAYS. REALLY THINK SIMILAR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS IN ORDER HERE AS WELL WITH CHANCES INCREASING AFTER
21Z AND DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF EXPECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS THERE
ARE FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WESTWARD POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. APPEARS THAT GEFS AND NAEFS ARE IN LINE
WITH THE MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE RIDGE EARLY...IN LINE WITH
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM. HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY RULE OUT
ECMWF AT THIS POINT AND WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER IMPLICATIONS OF ITS
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD WHEN MAKING FINAL DECISION. FOR THE MOST
PART THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL
HOLD ON TO LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF 100+ TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CWA.

JRM
&&

.AVIATION...
503 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT BOTH TAF SITES. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NW
KANSAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS KGLD TERMINAL AND TOWARDS KMCK.
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TO ABOUT THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY
EXPECT BEST CHANCES AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z...MAINLY OVER KMCK.
CANT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
10KT AT BOTH SITES...WITH STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS BY 11Z...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ004-015-016-029.

NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
344 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111330-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
344 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011 /444 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
454 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

KSZ013-102330-
SHERMAN-
454 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 451 PM MDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH ACROSS SHERMAN COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO 55 MPH MAY OCCUR NEAR THESE STORMS.

THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 10198 3957 10186 3956 10141 3913 10168
      3913 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 208DEG 17KT 3933 10174

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

KSZ002-NEZ080-102330-
HITCHCOCK-RAWLINS-
556 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND HITCHCOCK
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 545 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF STRATTON NE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 10115 4020 10089 3991 10112 3999 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 208DEG 17KT 4003 10117

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

KSZ003-015-110030-
DECATUR-SHERIDAN-
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND DECATUR
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 646 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SELDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 10048 3947 10072 3957 10072 3957 10073
      3983 10060 3981 10018 3977 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 226DEG 27KT 3955 10057

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

KSZ002-110030-
RAWLINS-
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF REXFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 10074 3957 10075 3958 10101 3993 10096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 226DEG 27KT 3964 10080

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
626 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

KSZ001-013-110100-
CHEYENNE-SHERMAN-
726 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND CHEYENNE
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 723 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF WHEELER...MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10142 3957 10165 3951 10166 3952 10189
      3957 10189 3957 10205 4000 10205 4000 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 183DEG 23KT 3961 10177

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
630 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             8 S OBERLIN             39.71N 100.53W
07/10/2011  M1.50 INCH       DECATUR            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MLAMMERS