Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Goodland, KS

931 
WWUS83 KGLD 172324
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

COZ252-253-KSZ001-002-013-NEZ079-080-180030-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110318T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-
524 PM MDT THU MAR 17 2011 /624 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2011/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE ZONES 001...002...013...079...080...252 AND 253...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO WELL BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GOODLAND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1110 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

.UPDATE...
926 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

JUST FINISHED UPDATE TO ADJUST T/TD/RH/WINDS TO MATCH UP WITH
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MAIN CHANGES TO MAX
T FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH. INCREASED WINDS
FOR THIS MORNING WHERE STRONGER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH RISING
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AFTERNOON WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SLACK
OFF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE AFTER 18Z TODAY.

TD/RH FORECAST REQUIRED MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WITH UPSTREAM
OBS OVER SE WYOMING IN THE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS...WHICH MATCHES
UP WELL WITH CURRENT HRRR AND ECWMF 2M TD SOLUTIONS. BOTH ECMWF
AND HRRR WOULD BRING THESE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS INTO THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THE
LOWEST UPSTREAM TD VALUES WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND SEEMS REASONABLE SO I DECREASED TD VALUES
ACCORDINGLY. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS LOW 20S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY THESE
LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR AS WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ONLY BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR RATHER
THAN THE 3 HOURS WE NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING POSSIBLE IN THE EVENT STRONGER
WINDS WERE ABLE TO HOLD ON THIS AFTERNOON.

DR
&&

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

THE MAIN THEME EMERGING FROM THIS FORECAST IS COOLER AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE COLD FRONT...ALREADY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT 07Z...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HEATING WILL
GRIND TO A HALT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY
WINDS AND HAVE LOWERED MAXES AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR TODAY. CONSIDERED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
RUC IS FORECASTING SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 26KTS BETWEEN 18Z AND
21Z. WINDS APPEAR TO BE TIED TO POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES AS
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER LOW AND DO NOT TAP INTO HIGHER WINDS AT
700MB. WILL PASS CONCERNS TO THE NEXT SHIFT BUT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF IF
IT HAPPENS.

NEXT CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OF 140KT JET MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. 300MB DIVERGENCE WILL
BE STRONGEST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH APPEARS TO BE JUST
GRAZED. PAINTED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN NORTHWEST CORNER
MAINLY TO MATCH UP WITH ISC. SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY MORNING WHERE MODELS INSIST ON LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER GENERALLY BELOW 750MB...PROBABLY THE RESULT OF LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS. WENT BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER TO
THROW IN SOME DRIZZLE BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS...BUT COULD NOT GET
ANYONE ON BOARD IN ISC SO KEPT THE PATCHY FOG AS A COMPROMISE.
UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
FAVORED COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AS WELL PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST
AS UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTINUES IN THE SURFACE WINDS. TRENDED COOLER
IN THE EAST AND WARMER IN THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP EVERYTHING ABOVE 800MB BONE DRY...AND COMBINED WITH COOL AND
STABLE LOWER LAYERS WILL RESULT IN STRONG CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE IS JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CIN IS ABOVE 100J/KG AND AS MENTIONED IT IS
BONE DRY. FURTHERMORE...REALLY TOUGH TO IDENTIFY ANY LIFTING
MECHANISM EITHER SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE. AS A RESULT REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY.

NO CHANGED MADE TO DAYS 4 THROUGH 7.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
1109 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH
KMCK AND KGLD TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH. UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING
TO AROUND 10 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENTLY GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL NORTHWEST OF BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER
CEILINGS MAY APPROACH LOW VFR LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY OVER BOTH SITES.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
939 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
939 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011 /1039 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER TODAY
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
DECREASING BELOW 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOWEST RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED...SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE USED IF BURNING IS PLANNED TODAY
OVER THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.