Red Flag Warning 42, NWS Goodland, KS

037 
WWUS83 KGLD 282357
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
457 PM MST MON NOV 28 2011

COZ252>254-KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-290100-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0042.000000T0000Z-111129T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERMAN-
THOMAS-SHERIDAN-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-
HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
457 PM MST MON NOV 28 2011 /557 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 001...002...003...013...014...015...027...028...029...041...
042...079...080...081...252...253 AND 254...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

$$

BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MST MON NOV 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
236 AM MST MON NOV 28 2011

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
RIDGE WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH THE FLOW
TONIGHT AND THE NAM INDICATES SOME H8-H7 MOISTURE BUT THERE APPEARS
TO BE LITTLE OR NO FORCING. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES FOR NOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE TO NEAR 60. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SO THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 20S WITH SOME TEENS AND LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
HELP HOLD UP LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FS

IN THE EXTENDED...

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA UNDER A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE MAIN JET OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ABSORBS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE MAIN FLOW EAST OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THURSDAY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES THE BEST AREAS FOR PRECIP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE.

STILL LOOKS TO BE WINDY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.  MODELS
SEEM TO BE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE WINDS.

DESPITE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT TIMING ON SATURDAY
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN REGARD TO PRECIP. CHANCES AS MODELS NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS ALSO NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH PRECIP. AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW
MERGING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO OUR EAST.  BEST PRECIP. CHANCES
LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE AND JET
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
1050 AM MST MON NOV 28 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY AT KGLD WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD DO SO AT KMCK IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WELL. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. ANTICIPATE
GENERALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS FOR KMCK BY AROUND 09Z.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 AM MST MON NOV 28 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291430-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
453 AM MST MON NOV 28 2011 /553 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FS