Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
239 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS BROUGHT RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  MODELS STILL
NOT AGREEING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE 700MB LOW...BUT ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB LOW.  FAVORED NAM AND RUC AS THESE TWO
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OUT OF COLORADO.  DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE ENTIRE CWA
COULD STILL SEE RAINFALL.  THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW.  THE CHANCES THEN DECREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THOSE
AREAS ARE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR LIFT.  OVERNIGHT
THE CHANCES DECREASE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.  WINDS WILL BE STRONG DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWEST CWA GOING AS THAT AREA HAS CONTINUED TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE MORNING SIMILAR IN
STRENGTH TO MONDAY. STRENGTH OF THE WINDS LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DUE TO CURRENT ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL
HOLD OFF ISSUING A NEW ADVISORY. THE LAST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD
EXIT THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL LIFTING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AREA IN
CASE THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL ABLE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH
SOME BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
239 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE CWA WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
FOLLOWING THE EXITING TROUGH WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS IT
PROGRESSES FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVES SOUTHEAST...WITH THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CWA.  AS A RESULT THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA COINCIDENT WITH LIFTING FROM MINOR
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
1135 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...BECOMING VFR
WITH A SCATTERED MIDLEVEL DECK THROUGH AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 45 TO 50KTS AT KGLD WITH
30 TO 38KTS AT KMCK. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
06-07Z...BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

PMM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-013-
     014-027>029-041-042.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ080-081.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ079-080.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211930-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
302 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011 /402 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL DECREASING IN
THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM
THAT FORMS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...MAINLY EAST OF A MCCOOK TO GOVE
LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS
RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURATED TO NEARLY SATURATED SOILS. STRONG
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.