Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
232 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING ONLY SLOW MOTION TO THE NE FOR
LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. IN SW FLOW ALOFT A DISTURBANCE IS
WORKING NE THROUGH NE UTAH-EXTREME NW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
STORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE ENHANCED AND NUMEROUS. THE HRRR INDICATES
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING BY 6 PM.
STILL BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME NIGHTTIME
STORMS. NO FAVORED LOCATION IS EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
BLANKETED THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED POPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT BUT AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
AGAIN GENERATE MAINLY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. THE EMPHASIS SHIFTS SOUTH
AS A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY IN SE ARIZONA...PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR SAN JUAN MTNS INCLUDING DURANGO AND PAGOSA
SPRINGS.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE DRYING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY FLOW
ADVECTS DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS. BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MARKEDLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NORTH WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE WY BORDER.

THE DRYING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
MODELS INDICATE THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE NEW
WEEK.

THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS...AND THUS WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN HUG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIG AND VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE MOUNTAIN
AIRPORTS FROM PASSING STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT DESERT VALLEY
AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY STAY VFR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS SCHEDULED FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....EH
AVIATION.....TGJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-041200-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED MUD DEBRIS
FLOWS.  STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THURSDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MUD DEBRIS FLOWS
ONTO ROADS AND RISES ALONG STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY CREEK BEDS OR
WASHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES TO SLIGHT CHANCE.  MOST STORMS WILL STAY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME GETS SUPPRESSED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
410 PM MDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND GST     15 NW MOAB              38.73N 109.74W
08/03/2011  M59 MPH          GRAND              UT   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100524

NL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
415 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

COZ009-011-032300-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN CO-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT
MESAS CO-
415 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DELTA AND EXTREME
NORTHERN MONTROSE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 407 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DELTA...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTROSE...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CORY AROUND 435 PM MDT.
ORCHARD CITY AROUND 440 PM MDT.
ECKERT AROUND 445 PM MDT.
AUSTIN AROUND 450 PM MDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3867 10785 3865 10786 3866 10816 3884 10817
      3889 10775 3867 10773

NL

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