Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
247 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH
GOOD MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
AS DRIER AIR MOVES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA IN THE SHORT RANGE. HAVE
CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF DECREASED POPS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE NAM12 IS A BIT MORE MOIST AND EARLIER WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS ON SATURDAY BASED
NAM12 GUIDANCE WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AT THE ONSET.
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN MVFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH LEVELS ABOVE BANKFULL
FOR THE GREEN RIVER IN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE INCREASED FLOWS FOR SOME
CREEKS AND RIVERS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. RIVER
FORECASTS ARE TRENDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER POINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE WHICH...IF ANY...ADVISORIES CAN
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR BE CANCELLED.

WATERWAYS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAST AND COLD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BANK EROSION HIGH DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH WATER.

CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN EFFECT INCLUDE...

...FLOOD ADVISORIES...

IN EASTERN UTAH...

   GREEN RIVER...
...WESTERN GRAND AND EASTERN EMERY COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM FRIDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM......MPM/JOE
LONG TERM.......MPM/JOE
AVIATION........TGJT
HYDROLOGY.......AS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
729 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-141329-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
729 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY THOUGH HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED.  THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN FROM
STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES.

MANY RIVERS ACROSS COLORADO AND UTAH CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND FAST.
A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SELECT
RIVERS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH ESPECIALLY THE GREEN RIVER AND ITS
NORTHEAST UTAH TRIBUTARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES. THEN
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>