River Flood Warning 10, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
509 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2011

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RUC ANALYSES SHOWED THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED PACIFIC LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LAS VEGAS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND DIFLUENCE OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO. GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED
BETTER INITIALIZED AND BOTH SHOWED BETTER PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
CENTER AT 06Z. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE SLOWEST MODEL AND
HAD ALREADY FALLEN BEHIND REALITY BY 06Z. GFS40 WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN ECMWF SOLUTION THIS MORNING AND WAS THE FAVORED MODEL
IN THE SHORT TERM.

ACTIVE DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING THEN OVER WESTERN COLORADO DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES LIQUID
DUE IN PART TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU. DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
THIS MORNING AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN
MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BOOSTED
POPS OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT STRONG
WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS MADE MENTION OF THIS IN THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
DISCUSSION WHICH HAS A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWEST COLORADO UNDER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. NVA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING WILL BRING
AND END TO SHOWERS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT PROMISES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ZONAL
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE DIVIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
ADVECTION OF COLDER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER THAN NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN REMAIN
ANCHORED THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH DOES BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. WITH TIME...MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT LEAST. A BETTER
SURGE WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY FROM THE BAJA REGION...AND THEN WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE HIGH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD MIDWEEK.
WITH TIME MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH READINGS NEAR
100 ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TODAY RESULTING IN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. FAST MOVING STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. STRONGER
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING AND A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED REGION WIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
COLORADO TODAY...STRONG WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF COLORADO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN DROPPING TO CRITICALLY LOW
VALUES. THE STRONG WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST BELOW 8000
FEET WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING. THE AREAS COVERED BY THIS WARNINGS ARE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO...WHERE FUELS ARE CONSIDERED CRITICALLY
DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM HIGH ELEVATION
SNOWPACK. THEREFORE RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS WEEK. MANY
RIVERS ARE ABOVE BANKFULL WITH A FEW ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

SOME RIVER POINTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THE END OF THE WEEK INCLUDING
THE GREEN AT JENSEN AND DUCHESNE AT RANDLETT. THE DUCHESNE RIVER MAY
SEE SOME THE HIGHEST PEAK OF THE SEASON.

WATERWAYS REMAIN DANGEROUS DUE TO FAST MOVING COLD WATER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR BANK EROSION.

CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN EFFECT INCLUDE...

...FLOOD WARNINGS...

IN EASTERN UTAH...

   GREEN RIVER...
...WESTERN GRAND AND EASTERN EMERY COUNTY UNTIL 900 AM MONDAY.
...NEAR JENSEN UTAH UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
   FROM MELTING SNOW
...NORTHWEST UINTAH COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

   COLORADO RIVER...
...NEAR CAMEO UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

...FLOOD ADVISORIES...

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

...EAGLE CO UNTIL TODAY...
...ROUTT CO UNTIL TODAY...
   COLORADO RIVER...
...NEAR THE COLORADO-UTAH STATELINE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
   EAGLE RIVER...
...NEAR GYPSUM UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
...NEAR DOTSERO INCLUDING GLENWOOD CANYON THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN EASTERN UTAH...

   GREEN RIVER...
...EASTERN DAGGETT COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM SUNDAY.
   COLORADO RIVER...
...NEAR THE COLORADO-UTAH STATELINE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
       ZONE 207 BELOW 8000 FEET.
UT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM.....NL
LONG TERM......EH
AVIATION.......NL
FIRE WEATHER...JOE+EH
HYDROLOGY......AS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
501 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2011

UTZ028-029-301145-
CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES UT-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS UT-
501 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SAN JUAN COUNTY UNTIL
545 AM MDT...

AT 459 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRY CYN...OR 27 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BLANDING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL SAN JUAN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3839 10973 3829 10945 3775 10982 3782 11003

NL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
552 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2011

UTZ028-029-301230-
CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES UT-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS UT-
552 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAND AND
NORTHEASTERN SAN JUAN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM MDT...

AT 551 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LA SAL JCT ARPT...
  LA SAL JCT...

LAT...LON 3850 10944 3850 10940 3853 10941 3861 10936
      3859 10931 3861 10928 3850 10907 3804 10952
      3814 10971

NL