Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Grand Junction, CO

792 
WWUS85 KGJT 070303
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
903 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING ON SATURDAY FROM 1200 TO 2100 MDT FOR
LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WIND IN COLORADO FIRE ZONE 203 BELOW 8500
FEET...AND ZONE 205 BELOW 7500 FEET...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY FROM 1200 TO 2100 MDT FOR LOW
HUMIDITY AND STRONG WIND IN COLORADO FIRE ZONES 203 AND 207 BELOW
8500 FEET...AND ZONE 205 BELOW 7500 FEET...

.ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PRODUCE DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING THAT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THE VALLEYS IN WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO...SATURDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL
BELOW 15% WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH FOR
THE ALL THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.

COZ203-205-071515-
/O.CAN.KGJT.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110507T0300Z/
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0007.110507T1800Z-110508T0300Z/
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.A.0007.110508T1800Z-110509T0300Z/
GRAND JUNCTION FORECAST AREA-MONTROSE FORECAST AREA-
903 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
203 BELOW 8500 FEET...AND ZONE 205 BELOW 7500 FEET...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 203 BELOW 8500 FEET...AND ZONE 205 BELOW 7500 FEET...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203 AND 205...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS CANCELLED THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203 BELOW 8500
  FEET AND 205 BELOW 7500 FEET.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH
  THE AFTERNOON. 

* HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LARGE FIRE GROWTH AND HIGH FIRE SPREAD RATES ARE 
  POSSIBLE AND MAY PRESENT CONTROL PROBLEMS ON PRESCRIBED BURNS 
  OR WILDFIRES. 

* DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
  AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS FOR THE VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

COZ207-071515-
/O.CAN.KGJT.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110507T0300Z/
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.A.0007.110508T1800Z-110509T0300Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
903 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 207...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR THIS EVENING...FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS CANCELLED THE
RED FLAG WARNING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 207 BELOW 8500
  FEET.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH
  THE AFTERNOON. 

* HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LARGE FIRE GROWTH AND HIGH FIRE SPREAD RATES ARE 
  POSSIBLE AND MAY PRESENT CONTROL PROBLEMS ON PRESCRIBED BURNS 
  OR WILDFIRES. 

* DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
  PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE VALLEYS OF
  SOUTHWEST COLORADO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
236 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY MONDAY MORNING...FORMING A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE
PROCESS. THIS TROUGH THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL ABOUT
WED.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INCREASING SNOW MELT AND SUBSEQUENTLY RIVER LEVELS. DEEP
MIXING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
PRETTY DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY.

MODELS KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING NE UT WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB FRONT REACHES THAT AREA. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SPREADS INTO SE UT AND WRN CO ON MONDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN
TROUGH NUDGES CLOSER. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY UNDER
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY.
BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINING UNDER 1/2 INCH MONDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY LIKELY
TO PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES COOLER ON
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE APPROACH OF GREAT BASIN
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE
OUT ON WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THEN RIDGING STRENGTHENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THAT RAISES SNOW MELT AND FLOODING
CONCERNS.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ON TUESDAY WITH TROUGH PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. IN SPITE OF JET SUPPORT IN THE SAN JUAN REGION...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE LIMITED AND FAVORS THE NORTH.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. INSTABILITY IS ALSO
LIMITED. SNOW LEVELS OF 9-10KFT WILL LOWER TO 8-9KFT OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A COOL START TO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THEN STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN THE HIGHER SNOWPACK MAY NOT
REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS UNTIL 00-02Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL
TODAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. SATURDAY...GRADIENT
WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH A BIT BUT INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
MIXING WILL AGAIN BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NEW NAM
MODEL GRIDS SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA BUT WINDS A BELOW CRITERIA DOWN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
INCREASING WINDS ON SUNDAY SUPPORT POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE DRY AND VULNERABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE WARM-UP AND ANTICIPATED ACCELERATED
RUNOFF RESULTING IN HIGHER FLOWS FOR SMALLER CREEKS...STREAMS AND
RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE RECENT FLAMING GORGE RESERVOIR RELEASE INTO THE GREEN RIVER IN
NORTHEAST UTAH RAISED THE RIVER LEVEL AROUND BANKFULL STAGE. THE
RELEASE WILL CONTINUE THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHER FLOWS ON THE GREEN
RIVER. THE RELEASE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NATURAL PEAK FLOWS BEGIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...RED FLAG WARNING SATURDAY NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR WEST
     CENTRAL COLORADO FIRE ZONES 203 BELOW 8500 FEET AND 205
     BELOW 7500 FEET.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR FIRE ZONES
     203-205-207.
UT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM.....JAD
LONG TERM......JOE
AVIATION.......JAD
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
HYDROLOGY......AS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
520 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2011

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-071219-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
520 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTH AND TIMES OF
SUN AND CLOUDS TO THE NORTH.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.