Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Grand Junction, CO

866 
WWUS85 KGJT 210404
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1004 PM MDT WED APR 20 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS...FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 207 BELOW 7500 FEET...

.SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL DROP BELOW
15 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...
ALONG WITH DRY FUELS BELOW 7500 FEET WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING.

COZ207-211615-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0005.110421T1800Z-110422T0300Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
1004 PM MDT WED APR 20 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS...
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 7500 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 
  7500 FEET. 

* WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH 
  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
  FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. 

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS 
  WILL CAUSE FIRE CONTROL PROBLEMS...INCLUDING AGRICULTURAL 
  BURNS AND PRESCRIBED BURNS. SUCH FIRES WILL GROW QUICKLY AND 
  OUTPACE ATTEMPTS AT CONTROL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT

955 
WWUS85 KGJT 211604
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1004 AM MDT THU APR 21 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TODAY FOR GUSTY
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS...FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW
7500 FEET...

.SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY... ALONG WITH DRY FUELS BELOW 7500 FEET WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

COZ207-220300-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0005.110421T1800Z-110422T0300Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
1004 AM MDT THU APR 21 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS... FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 7500 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 
  7500 FEET.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH
  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 PERCENT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
  FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS 
  WILL CAUSE FIRE CONTROL PROBLEMS...INCLUDING AGRICULTURAL 
  BURNS AND PRESCRIBED BURNS. SUCH FIRES WILL GROW QUICKLY AND 
  OUTPACE ATTEMPTS AT CONTROL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT

977 
WWUS85 KGJT 220254
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
854 PM MDT THU APR 21 2011

COZ207-220400-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110422T0300Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
854 PM MDT THU APR 21 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS... FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 7500 FEET...

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO FIRE ZONE 207
BELOW 7500 FEET WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.

WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL
PERSIST UNTIL ALMOST MIDNIGHT IN MANY AREAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL MOVE ABOVE 15 PERCENT.

$$

JAD

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 AM MDT WED APR 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

LINGERING SNOWFALL INDICATED TO HAVE FINALLY ENDED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO REMOTE
SENSORS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS EARLY THIS MORNING. GFS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT AND MADE SOME LAST MINUTE CHANGES BASED
ON THIS GUIDANCE.

MODELS ALL SHOWED A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WITH MID-
LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...A ZONALLY
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST PACIFIC FLOW OVER THIS BOUNDARY
APPEARED TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. OVERRUNNING REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
RISING TEMPERATURES WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ADDED TO THE MIX TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN INCREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT RESULTING IN 7H TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE 0 DEG C MOVING INTO THE NORTHERNMOST REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...
DIPPING TO NEAR 8000 FEET AT THEIR LOWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF IT. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INDICATED ALONG THE CO/WY
BORDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH 110 KT JET NOSING OVER NORTHEAST UTAH
PROVIDING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS
AND BANDED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT RESULTING
IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...THOUGH LIKELY TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
THURSDAY NIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER FLAT RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS.
PREFRONTAL WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER...NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS.

A TRAILING 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN WEST-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY WINDS FRI.

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE WA/OR COAST SAT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE
CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE TROUGH NEARS. 700 MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY DAYTIME IN THE 00Z GFS...FOR SNOW LEVELS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10K FT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL TIMED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL USA THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF PACIFIC STORMS INTO THE WEST FOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THERE LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE BREAK BY TUESDAY AS
THE 00Z GFS TRIES TO BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. 12Z/19 ECWMF NOT SO OPTIMISTIC.

.AVIATION...

EXPECT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF A 20N KGUC-KVEL LINE. THEREFORE...
EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER IN
A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH OF A KGUC-KU29 LINE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 500 FEET ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9000 FEET. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN SHOWERS...AREA AIRPORTS WILL MAINLY EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN AREAS AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET MSL WILL
FREQUENTLY BE OBSCURED IN SNOW SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND SNOW WILL LOWER TOWARD 8000 FEET OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM....JAD
AVIATION.....NL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT WED APR 20 2011

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-211200-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
545 AM MDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 8000
FEET AND WILL RISE TO AROUND 9000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SENDS A SERIES OF
MOIST PACIFIC STORMS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE MILD SPRING STORMS AND MELTING SNOWFALL MAY
LEAD TO INCREASED WATER FLOWS ON SEVERAL SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TGJT