Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Grand Junction, CO

362 
WGUS75 KGJT 010109
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
709 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

COC037-010300-
/O.CON.KGJT.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-110801T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EAGLE CO-
709 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EAGLE
COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM MDT...

AT 704 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SOME LAND 
SLIDES OVER GYPSUM CREEK ROAD SOUTH OF GYPSUM DUE TO RUNOFF FROM 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THAT UP 
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY HAVE FALLEN IN AN AREA ABOUT 10 TO 15 
MILES OF GYPSUM.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CAUTION SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO BE USED IF TRAVELING NEAR OR ALONG THE GYPSUM 
CREEK AREA. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 10672 3936 10668 3937 10694 3962 10702
      3962 10684

$$

DP

195 
WGUS75 KGJT 010258
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

COC037-010313-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-110801T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EAGLE CO-
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EAGLE
COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3966 10672 3936 10668 3937 10694 3962 10702
      3962 10684

$$

NL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
204 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MOIST SOUTHERLY SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THIS MORNING SOUNDING
AT GJT WAS AT 1.2 INCHES. MODEL AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST FLOW AND
FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
BASED ON RECENT TREND...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT EXPECT
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT STRONGER STORMS AND THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. STAY TUNED TO
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS MATTER. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW
WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE OVER HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  MODELS
DO SHOW RIDGE DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WEST INTO THE WEEKEND.  WITH LESS
FAVORABLE FLOW AND MOISTURE...HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHIFTS TO DECREASE POPS OVER THE AREA AS WEEK PROGRESSES.
EXPECT MAINLY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DECREASING POPS ON THURSDAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE DIVIDE BOTH DAYS WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
STRONG STORMS COULD LOWER CIG/VIS TO SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. KTEX AND KASE AIRPORTS HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VIS FROM STORMS.  FOR OTHER
AIRPORTS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM STORMS.
&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM....MPM
AVIATION.....MPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011200-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.  LOCAL HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH WILL BE THE COMMON THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.  HEAVY RAIN IN
THE MOUNTAINS MAY GENERATE SOME MUD DEBRIS FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON
HIGHWAY 145 NEAR TELLURIDE AND POSSIBLY OTHER MOUNTAIN HIGHWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD
SATURDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE MUD
DEBRIS FLOWS ONTO ROADS AND RISES ALONG STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY
CREEK BEDS OR WASHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.