Alert archive / Colorado / Blizzard Warnings in 2011
Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Grand Junction, CO
NWS Grand Junction, CO issued this blizzard warning at Feb 16, 2011, 5:12 AM MST for 13 counties in Colorado; Grand County, San Juan County, Utah. It took effect at Feb 17, 2011, 12:00 AM MST. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 16, 2011, 5:12 AM MST (12:12 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 17, 2011, 12:00 AM MST
- Expired
- Feb 17, 2011, 4:00 AM MST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Junction, CO
Counties Archuleta County, CO, Delta County, CO, Dolores County, CO, Garfield County, CO, Gunnison County, CO, Hinsdale County, CO, La Plata County, CO, Mesa County, CO, Montezuma County, CO, Montrose County, CO, Ouray County, CO, San Juan County, CO, San Miguel County, CO, Grand County, UT, San Juan County, UT
The radar
The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Grand Junction, CO (KGJT), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2997 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 81 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 115 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 278 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
834 WWUS45 KGJT 161212 WSWGJT URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 512 AM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WIND AND SNOW RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... .A PACIFIC STORM NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TONIGHT BUT THEN SLOW OR STALL. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION AND DECREASE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 COMBINING WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE. STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES IN THIS WINTER STORM...OR VISIT THE GRAND JUNCTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT. COZ009-012-017>019-UTZ028-162015- /O.UPG.KGJT.BZ.A.0001.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.BZ.W.0001.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKYWAY...CRESTED BUTTE...TAYLOR PARK... MARBLE...RIDGWAY...GLADE PARK...OURAY...TELLURIDE...LAKE CITY... SILVERTON...RICO...HESPERUS...MONTICELLO AND VICINITY 512 AM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PEAK TIME EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS GUSTS WILL BE ABOVE TREE LINE. * VISIBILITY...MAY BE SEVERELY RESTRICTED AT TIMES IN SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES. * SNOW LEVEL...AROUND 8000 FEET MSL LOWERING BY THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND HIGHWAY 550. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ COZ004-013-162015- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0006.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0006.110217T0700Z-110218T0700Z/ ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBINE...TOPONAS...BUFORD... TRAPPERS LAKE 512 AM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...8 TO 16 INCHES. * SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7000 FEET...LOWERING THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 BECOMING WEST THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE. WINDS DECREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITY...WILL BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ COZ010-UTZ023-162015- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0006.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.110217T0700Z-110218T0700Z/ GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS- EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASPEN...VAIL...SNOWMASS...MANILA... DUTCH JOHN 512 AM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES. * SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7000 FEET...LOWERING THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE. * VISIBILITY...MAY BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ COZ005-162015- /O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND VICINITY 512 AM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING WEST 10 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITY...MAY BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
3 follow-up statements
430 WWUS45 KGJT 161947 WSWGJT URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1247 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WIND AND SNOW RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... .A PACIFIC STORM OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TONIGHT BUT THEN SLOW OR STALL. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION AND DECREASE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 COMBINING WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE. STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES IN THIS WINTER STORM...OR VISIT THE GRAND JUNCTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT. COZ009-012-017>019-UTZ028-170500- /O.CON.KGJT.BZ.W.0001.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKYWAY...CRESTED BUTTE...TAYLOR PARK... MARBLE...RIDGWAY...GLADE PARK...OURAY...TELLURIDE...LAKE CITY... SILVERTON...RICO...HESPERUS...MONTICELLO AND VICINITY 1247 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PEAK TIME EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS GUSTS WILL BE ABOVE TREE LINE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 45 MPH. * VISIBILITY...WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AREAS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH DRIFTS 2 TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE. * SNOW LEVEL...AROUND 8000 FEET MSL LOWERING BY THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND HIGHWAY 550. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ COZ004-013-170500- /O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0006.110217T0700Z-110218T0700Z/ ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBINE...TOPONAS...BUFORD... TRAPPERS LAKE 1247 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...8 TO 16 INCHES. * SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7000 FEET...LOWERING THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 BECOMING WEST THURSDAY AND DECREASING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAINLY ABOVE TREE LINE. WINDS DECREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITY...WILL BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ COZ010-UTZ023-170500- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.110217T0700Z-110218T0700Z/ GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS- EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASPEN...VAIL...SNOWMASS...MANILA... DUTCH JOHN 1247 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES. * SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7000 FEET...LOWERING THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE. * VISIBILITY...WILL BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ COZ005-170500- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND VICINITY 1247 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MST THURSDAY. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING WEST 10 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH MAINLY OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN. * VISIBILITY...MAY BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
933 WWUS45 KGJT 170451 WSWGJT URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 951 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WIND AND SNOW RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY... .A PACIFIC STORM OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TONIGHT BUT THEN SLOW OR STALL. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION AND DECREASE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 COMBINING WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES IN THIS WINTER STORM...OR VISIT THE GRAND JUNCTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT. COZ009-012-017>019-UTZ028-171600- /O.CON.KGJT.BZ.W.0001.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKYWAY...CRESTED BUTTE...TAYLOR PARK... MARBLE...RIDGWAY...GLADE PARK...OURAY...TELLURIDE...LAKE CITY... SILVERTON...RICO...HESPERUS...MONTICELLO AND VICINITY 951 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THURSDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THURSDAY. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PEAK TIME EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ABOVE TREE LINE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 45 MPH. * VISIBILITY...WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AREAS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH DRIFTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE. * SNOW LEVEL...AROUND 8000 FEET MSL LOWERING BY THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND HIGHWAY 550. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ COZ004-013-171600- /O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0006.110217T0700Z-110218T0700Z/ ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBINE...TOPONAS...BUFORD... TRAPPERS LAKE 951 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...8 TO 16 INCHES. * SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7000 FEET...LOWERING TOMORROW MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 BECOMING WEST TOMORROW AND DECREASING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAINLY ABOVE TREE LINE. WINDS DECREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITY...WILL BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ COZ010-UTZ023-171600- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.110217T0700Z-110218T0700Z/ GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS- EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASPEN...VAIL...SNOWMASS...MANILA... DUTCH JOHN 951 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST THURSDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES. * SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7000 FEET...LOWERING TOMORROW MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE. * VISIBILITY...WILL BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ COZ005-171600- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.110217T0700Z-110218T0400Z/ UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND VICINITY 951 PM MST WED FEB 16 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THURSDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THURSDAY. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING WEST 10 TO 20 MPH TOMORROW. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH MAINLY OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN. * VISIBILITY...MAY BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
350 WWUS45 KGJT 171100 WSWGJT URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 400 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011 ...WIND AND SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY... .A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL HAMPER TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES 0N THIS WINTER STORM...OR VISIT THE GRAND JUNCTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT. COZ009-012-171930- /O.CAN.KGJT.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0400Z/ /O.EXA.KGJT.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110218T0700Z/ GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKYWAY...CRESTED BUTTE...TAYLOR PARK... MARBLE 400 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT... ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * TIMING...NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET * VISIBILITY...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES WITH LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED TODAY WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE FOOT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. * IMPACTS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 65 AND HIGHWAY 50. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ COZ017>019-171930- /O.CAN.KGJT.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0400Z/ /O.EXA.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-110218T0400Z/ UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RIDGWAY...GLADE PARK...OURAY... TELLURIDE...LAKE CITY...SILVERTON...RICO...HESPERUS 400 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING... ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING. THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * TIMING...NOW UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING WITH THE PEAK TIME EXPECTED TO BE THIS MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET. * VISIBILITY...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ UTZ028-171930- /O.CAN.KGJT.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0400Z/ /O.EXA.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-110218T0400Z/ LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MONTICELLO AND VICINITY 400 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING... ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING. THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * TIMING...NOW UNTIL 900 PM MST THIS EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE 8500 FEET. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. * VISIBILITY...SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ COZ004-013-171930- /O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110218T0700Z/ ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBINE...TOPONAS...BUFORD... TRAPPERS LAKE 400 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT. * TIMING...NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 16 INCHES AND GREATEST ON WEST FACING SLOPES. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 BECOMING WEST TOMORROW AND DECREASING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAINLY ABOVE TREE LINE. WINDS DECREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITY...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. * IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ COZ010-UTZ023-171930- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-110218T0700Z/ GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS- EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASPEN...VAIL...SNOWMASS...MANILA... DUTCH JOHN 400 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT. * TIMING...NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES. * SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7000 FEET...LOWERING THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE. * VISIBILITY...WILL BE IMPACTED AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ COZ005-171930- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-110218T0400Z/ UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND VICINITY 400 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING. * TIMING...NOW UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. * VISIBILITY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO UNDER 1 MILE AT MILES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this blizzard warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard warning went out at Feb 16, 4:55 AM MST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 4:55 AM MST, 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 AM MST WED FEB 16 2011
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL HIT THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD...
WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS NUMEROUS
WIND AND WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT.
A PACIFIC STORM ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH RELOADS AND REMAINS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES INTO NE UT/NW CO
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SLOWS OR STALLS ACROSS SE UT AND WEST-
CENTRAL CO ON THU AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACROSS
WY/MT/DAKOTAS.
SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
TODAY. 700 MB WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 45-60 KTS ACROSS ERN UT AND NW
CO BY THIS EVENING...AS A 120-130 KT UPPER JET SETS UP FROM SRN UT
TO NW CO. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUSTS 75 MPH FOR THE MTNS IN ERN UT
AND NW CO LOOKS ON TRACK. BELIEVE ENOUGH MIXING COMBINED WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT GUSTIER WINDS SE UT AND NW
CO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN MOS GUIDANCE PREDICTS...SO
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR GUSTS 45 MPH
FOR UT ZONES 27/29/22 AND CO ZONES 1/2. THINK THE GRAND VALLEY AND
ESPECIALLY THE ERN UINTA BASIN WILL NOT SEE QUITE AS STRONG. MODELS
SHOWING LESS WIND FROM VAIL/ASPEN TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND WILL
DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE TO A WIND ADVISORY.
THE UPPER JET SHIFTS TO SW CO LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTH. GOOD FRONTAL UPLIFT AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO THU. WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY WHICH WILL FAVOR SNOW ACCUMS IN THE STEAMBOAT VALLEY.
UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ELKHEAD/PARK/
FLATTOPS AREAS...AND TO A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE ELK MTNS
AROUND ASPEN AND VAIL...STEAMBOAT VALLEY...AND FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
MTNS. THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS LOOK SHY OF ADVISORY SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT PERIODS OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
FOR DOUGLAS PASS EARLY THU MORNING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE NW CO VALLEYS WHERE OVERRUNNING COULD RESULT IN GREATER SNOW
ACCUMS...AND WIND FOR BLOWING SNOW.
00Z MODELS WERE RATHER STINGY WITH SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MTNS...HOWEVER...WHERE SNOW LEVELS MAY START OFF 8000 FT OR
HIGHER THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING BY THU. BUT...EXPECT WIND WILL
BE PREVALENT WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD THROUGH THU. GUSTS OVER 70
MPH EXPECTED ABOVE 10K FEET. THUS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE BLIZZARD
WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING.
PEAK TIME FOR SNOW/WIND IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING LOOKS LIKE 300 AM TO
ABOUT NOON THU.
WEATHER WINDS DOWN THU NIGHT.
THANKS TO SLC/BOU/CYS/PUB FOR THE COORDINATION!
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
THOUGH SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO PROPAGATION OF
A DEEP SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WEST. HPC DISCUSSED A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE PERIOD...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT THIS MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL ABSTAIN FROM
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DEEPENS. LIFT NEGLIGIBLE
BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXCEPT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION...DOUBTFUL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALOFT TO MIX WARMER AIR INTO THE VALLEYS
AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO ONLY REACH NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP BUOY OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY. IN
RESPONSE...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASES AT RIDGE TOP
LEVEL DURING THE DAY. IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
INDICATED WHILE SURGE OF DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY...FAVORING THE SOUTH. CONTINUED WAA PROMISES TO RAISE
SNOWLEVELS ABOVE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...EVEN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EC
AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS CARRIES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
CWFA BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC HOLDS A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...BOTH
INDICATED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT THE STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER LOCAL HAZE OR FOG IN THE UINTAH BASIN WILL BRING MVFR VSBY
THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON
...ESPECIALLY ALONG 125 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ON A KPGA TO 30W
KRWL LINE. RIDGE TOP WINDS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL FREQUENTLY GUST
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 75 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS
SNOW BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES BECOMING THE
NORMAL AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COMMON DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MST TODAY FOR ZONES 01-02.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
FOR ZONES 003-004-009-013-17.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 10-12-18-19.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 PM MST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 09-12-17-18-19.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 04-13.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 05-10.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MST TODAY FOR ZONES 22-27-29.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 023-025-028.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 PM MST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 28.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 23.
&&
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM....NL/EH
AVIATION.....TGJTHazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 5:45 AM MST, 23 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 545 AM MST TUE FEB 15 2011 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-161300- ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH- SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- 545 AM MST TUE FEB 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HERALDING THE BEGINNING OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...OCCASIONALLY DRIFTING OVER THE VALLEYS. COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TGJT
The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Junction, CO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 5:12 AM MST | Winter Storm Warning | GJT | Delta, Eagle, Garfield, Gunnison, Mesa, Moffat and 3 more | 39 hr |
| Feb 16, 5:12 AM MST | Winter Weather Advisory | GJT | Archuleta, Delta, Dolores, Eagle, Garfield, Gunnison and 10 more | 39 hr |
| Feb 16, 5:29 AM MST | Wind Advisory | GJT | Archuleta, Delta, Dolores, Eagle, Garfield, Gunnison and 11 more | 19 hr |
Nearby
Blizzard Warnings in Colorado, 2011Blizzard Warnings in Utah, 2011Every blizzard warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.