Wind Advisory 23, NWS Hastings, NE

087 
WWUS73 KGID 011850
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 PM CST THU DEC 1 2011

KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085-
012000-
/O.EXP.KGID.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-111201T1900Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-ROOKS-OSBORNE-VALLEY-GREELEY-SHERMAN-HOWARD-DAWSON-
BUFFALO-HALL-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...ORD...LOUP CITY...ST. PAUL...
LEXINGTON...KEARNEY...GRAND ISLAND...ELWOOD...HOLDREGE...MINDEN...
HASTINGS...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD
1250 PM CST THU DEC 1 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

ALTHOUGH STILL WINDY THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH WIND HAVE DROPPED
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 25 MPH AND GUST
NEAR 30 MPH TODAY...BEFORE DECREASING TOWARD SUNSET.



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
519 AM CST THU DEC 1 2011

.AVIATION...12Z TAF. LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSED EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW DURING THE DAY
BEFORE LETTING UP THIS EVENING. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST THU DEC 1 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD INCLUDING STRONG WINDS TODAY AND
THEN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SAY GOOD BYE TO THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE SAW AT THE END OF NOVEMBER
AND HELLO TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WHICH WILL USHER IN THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. A STRONG NORTH WIND WILL APPROACH OUR WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLD TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WINDY
EVERYWHERE...ZONES LOCATED ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281 WILL COME THE
CLOSEST TO MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE ENOUGH MIXING TO MIX DOWN THE
STRONGEST WINDS FROM ALOFT...WHICH IS AT LEAST PARTLY WHY WINDS
SHOULD MOSTLY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS
COLD FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND THE BEST DYNAMIC ENERGY SPLITS
AROUND OUR AREA TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FRONTOGENESIS TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WILL ACCUMULATE INTO A PROBLEM.
THUS...WILL JUST CALL IT FLURRIES TODAY AND FOR THE MOST PART
NOTHING MEASURABLE.

FRIDAY WILL BE A COOL DRY DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THE TROUBLE BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA PHASES WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS KICKS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW
NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE AND DEEP TROUGH
ALLOWS STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TAP INTO
GULF MOISTURE...WHICH THEN WORKS INTO THE STORM SYSTEM.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MOST CONSISTENT AND BELIEVABLE MODELS BEING
THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEM...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE LEAST CONSISTENT MODEL AND WILL NOT BE GIVEN MUCH
CONSIDERATION AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF INDICATES THE LARGEST
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOR OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION IT IS FORECASTING. HOWEVER...THIS ALSO RESULTS IN
BIGGER PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING CHALLENGES WITH THE WARMER
AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE MOST TRICKY TO NAIL DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH THE TRI
CITIES EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ALL SNOW.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AROUND OR A LITTLE BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY START OUT AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS KANSAS WITH AN INITIAL WARM LAYER ALOFT. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA IS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...IF THE COLDER GFS MODEL PANS OUT
THEN EVEN OUR NORTHERN KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW AND THE
POTENTIAL OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS DUE TO THE HIGHER LEVEL
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE UNCERTAINTY. COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR ANY KANSAS ZONES THAT SEE AN
EARLY MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE
RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW ENDING BY
EVENING. THE WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL ON SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.

THIS IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE IT WILL TURN INTO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS MEANING THE POSSIBILITY OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS SEE
A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT GIVEN THE QPF BEING PROJECTED BY THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS. THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT WILL NEED TO
AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A WINTER STORM
WATCH SHOULD MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS LOW THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL
SIDE. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
THERE WILL BE SOME WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 AM CST THU DEC 1 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
021200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
600 AM CST THU DEC 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUST NEAR 40 MPH ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY AT TIMES BE COMBINED WITH
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOW
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MIGHT END UP
FALLING AS RAIN. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80...BUT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. AS FOR SNOW...PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 3 INCHES BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM PULLS OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20
MPH COULD ALSO LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW.
PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEKEND CLOSELY...AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AS THE FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES
CLEARER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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