Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
133 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER
TODAY HAS FIZZLED INTO A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS...ONE STRONG TO
NEARLY SEVERE STORM CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO BUFFALO
COUNTY AS OF 18Z. ANTICIPATE THIS STORM...OR NEW ONES DEVELOPING
NEAR IT...TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE. JURY IS DEFINITELY OUT ON HOW
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN GET GOING NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...AND
POPS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT HAVE BEEN CUT OUT/LOWERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMP WISE...SENT ONE FINAL UPDATE TO HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MANY AREAS THANKS TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. STILL THINK ENOUGH SUN COULD BREAK OUT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN SOME RECOVERY...BUT ALL IN ALL
EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL AT LEAST 5-8 DEGREES SHORT OF ORIGINAL
FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WHILE IN KS ZONES TEMPS HAVE ALREADY APPROACHED HIGHS AHEAD
OF OUTFLOW WORKING INTO THE AREA...AND WILL LIKELY SOON STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH PLENTY OF MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING VISIBILITY AND
CEILING TRENDS. FOR NOW OPTED TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THIS PLACES BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/GENERALLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
THIS COVERED IN A TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...MVFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND HAVE TAKEN A STAB
WITH PREVAILING GROUPS FOR NOW. CERTAINLY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
IN THESE DETAILS AS CEILING OVERNIGHT COULD FAIL TO DEVELOP...OR
COULD END UP A BIT HIGHER OR LOWER. IF LOWER STRATUS DOES
FORM...IT COULD BE TOUGH TO SCATTER OUT IN THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011/

UPDATE...NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
NOT HANDLED THE PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AS THIS ACTIVITY
IS TIED TO THE SOUTHWEST FLANKS OF A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NE/IA/SD/MN BORDER REGION.
SEE NO REASON WHY STORMS WON/T CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ARE CAPPED...LATEST RUC MESO-ANALYSIS AND
12Z NAM INDICATE MUCAPE IN THE H85-H7 LAYER IS AT LEAST INTO THE
15000-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND 0-6KM DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS AT
LEAST 35-40 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET SOMETIME DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING AS FORCING FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. RAISED POPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...NORMALLY HATE MESSING WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SO EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM STORMS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER...SHAVED AT LEAST 2-4 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH MIGHT END UP REGRETTING THIS IN
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE.
NO OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION PUSHING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY TRACK SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ITS MAIN FOCUS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN
SO...EXPECT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THIS MORNING...ALREADY SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
ADVECTED ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEW
POINT READINGS. WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...DO
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS...AND
WILL CORRESPONDINGLY GIVE A MENTION OF THIS IN HWO. WITH OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE SKIES EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS...COMBINING TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN INHIBITOR WILL BE STRONG CAP IN LOW
LEVELS AND CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD HELP TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY...AND KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
DWINDLE...AND FOR A FAIRLY PLEASANT MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
PREV DISCUSSION...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
291215-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THROUGH THIS
EVENING...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AS
STORM ACTIVITY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS ARE HAIL TO AROUND THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS LINGERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...BUT BY THEN THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
OVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
118 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

NEZ061-281845-
BUFFALO NE-
118 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BUFFALO COUNTY UNTIL 145
PM CDT...

AT 112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AMHERST...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KEARNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  KEARNEY...
  RIVERDALE...
  ODESSA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 261 AND 279.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4105 9908 4065 9895 4067 9932 4105 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 343DEG 32KT 4080 9918

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             MILLER                  40.93N 99.39W
08/28/2011  E0.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

WESELY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

NEZ073-282015-
PHELPS NE-
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELM CREEK...OR 14 MILES
NORTH OF HOLDREGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FUNK...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4068 9950 4068 9945 4067 9941 4067 9933
      4066 9926 4066 9918 4035 9918 4046 9935
      4062 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 314DEG 29KT 4062 9939

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
247 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             12 N HOLDREGE           40.61N 99.38W
08/28/2011  E0.88 INCH       PHELPS             NE   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 183

&&

PFANNKUCH

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