Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR HAS STARTED SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ENTERING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP SOME AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. EAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BRINGING IN
MORE MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CAPES WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED BY SOME MODEST
SHEAR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE EARLY AS THE CAPE
DECREASES LATER TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
RAIN AND EXPECT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER ON SATURDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD BE DECREASING CHANCES DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AND AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED TIME FRAME WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
TO THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ANY
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A SUBTLE WAVE WHICH IS TOUGH TO IDENTIFY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING A PRETTY DECENT LOW
LOW JET SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SPEED
CONVERGENCE FROM THIS FEATURE WOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE IT WILL ACTUALLY SET UP. IF WE DO GET
CONVECTION IT COULD LINGER IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN GENERATING
PRECIPITATION AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DRAGGING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CWA. FORCING NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE SO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SHOULD COVER IT FOR NOW.

AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES THE LONGER SOLUTION MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SLIDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CANNOT GUARANTEE TUE TO FRI WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY
BUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME SHOULD BE HIT AND MISS AT BEST.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MON-WED SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90...WHILE THUR & FRI ARE A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011/

AVIATION...18Z TAF. SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
KGRI TERMINAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND SEEMS TO BE SPREADING OUT
AROUND THE AREA. IT HAS BEEN LIFTING...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
MVFR. EXPECT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS INTO
THE DAY TOMORROW AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
327 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
327 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ017-200030-
ROOKS KS-
640 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROOKS COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 637 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ZURICH...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HILL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ZURICH...
  PLAINVILLE...
  WEBSTER STATE PARK...
  STOCKTON...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3914 9961 3952 9942 3941 9913 3913 9935
      3913 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 206DEG 17KT 3917 9946

HEINLEIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ017-018-200045-
OSBORNE KS-ROOKS KS-
657 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSBORNE AND ROOKS
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOGUE TO PALCO TO 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CODELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ZURICH...
  DAMAR...
  PLAINVILLE...
  CODELL...
  WEBSTER STATE PARK...
  NATOMA...
  STOCKTON...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3921 9961 3950 9961 3957 9944 3922 9875
      3913 9898 3913 9944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 242DEG 17KT 3936 9973 3925 9949
          3912 9923

HEINLEIN