Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW CUMULUS HAVE FORMED WHERE THE STRATUS WAS WITH THE FOG EARLIER
THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE DURING THE DAY BUT HAS GRADUALLY DRIFTED EAST.

MODELS HAVE RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. EACH OF THE
MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
WAVES WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST A CHALLENGE.

THE FIRST WAVE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THERE
WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY
OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. THE CIN IS GOOD ENOUGH EARLY THAT STORMS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE GETTING STARTED...BUT THE CIN DECREASES THIS EVENING
SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING THEN
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

THERE COULD BE A SHORT BREAK SUNDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON THERE
IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING AND STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. WITH ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERALLY FAST MOVING
MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUICK PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY...WHEN GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WHILE IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF
THESE DISTURBANCES...BOTH THE GFS AND EC IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A
PAIR OF FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TRIED TO INDICATE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THESE TIME PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED IN JUST ABOUT
EVERY OTHER FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...AT
THIS TIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011/

AVIATION...18Z TAF. NOT TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS LEFT FROM THE FOG
THIS MORNING. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WILL BE WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT FOG AGAIN TOWARD
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MORE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT TIME HOURS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)