Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER UPON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS DUE TO A PERSISTENT TROPICAL TAP FROM
THE PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE A BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD REMAINING FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FARTHER SOUTH. KUEX
INDICATES DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...THE RESULT OF CONTINUED MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A HEALTHY CAPPING INVERSION LIKELY
KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY ELEVATED. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM LAPS DATA
AND NAM BUFR SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ROOTED TO NEAR 700MB WHERE 200-500J/KG CAPE IS WAITING. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST RATHER SHALLOW UPDRAFTS
WITH LIMITED CG. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
OTHER THAN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED MICRO BURST DOUBT WELL SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE POST-SUNSET AS DIABATIC
HEATING IS LOST...ALTHOUGH THE 4KM WRF-NMM DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION COULD SWEEP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
03-06Z TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
MONITOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS STRATUS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND SATURATION NEAR THE 305K SURFACE CONTINUES. MAY ALSO
BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN
HOW BRIEF THE FOG WAS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT KEEP STRATUS LINGERING
THROUGH DAY BREAK AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL MIXING THROUGH DIABATIC
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO BREAK APART.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERSISTENT RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
RELAX SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AS SERIES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LOBES TO PASS OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW A COOL
FRONT TO SAG ACROSS THE AREA. THE PACIFIC CONNECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. SINCE WE
HAVE A FOCUSING MECHANISM...MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR SUPPORT IN THE
MIX...THE RECIPE HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WOULD
APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN RECENTLY...AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA
AND MOISTURE PROVIDES ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP MAXIMUM SOLAR
INSOLATION FROM OCCURRING.

TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LAST DRY AND HOT DAY FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS STILL IN FULL COMMAND OF THE WEATHER
PICTURE.

BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK WEST AND NORTH OVER
THE REGION...SO A RETURN TO HOT AND LESS STORMY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR AN EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER...TUESDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
BE BORDERLINE EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINE DAYS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND A DECENT FOCUSING MECHANISM ARE PRESENT. STRONG WIND
SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...SO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS
LOW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 20Z BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND
PERHAPS FOG AT KGRI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BY 05Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS EARLY AS 08Z DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ086-
     087.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...EDDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
251200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...AS WELL AS NUCKOLLS AND THAYER COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MESSAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THESE DAYS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRFIELD               40.43N 98.10W
07/24/2011                   CLAY               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN...ON HOUSE AND A CAR IN TOWN

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
553 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     OAK                     40.24N 97.90W
07/24/2011  M60 MPH          NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S FAIRFIELD             40.43N 98.10W
07/24/2011                   CLAY               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER OUT IN FAIRFIELD. POWER LINES DOWN JUST SOUTH OF
            FAIRFIELD NEAR DEWEESE AND POWER OUT IN EDGAR AS WELL.
            ALL THREE COMMUNITIES REPORTING HEAVY TREE DAMAGE.

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     TSTM WND GST     DESHLER                 40.14N 97.72W
07/24/2011  E60 MPH          THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BRANCHES BREAKING.

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND GST     CARLETON                40.30N 97.67W
07/24/2011  E70 MPH          THAYER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            65 TO 70 MPH WINDS. POWER OUT.

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     TSTM WND GST     JEWELL                  39.67N 98.15W
07/24/2011  E60 MPH          JEWELL             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO