Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KGRI TERMINAL AREA. THEY SHOULD BE REACHING THE AREA IN A
WHILE. THEY ARE SCATTERED AND COULD BE IN AND OUT FOR A SHORT
TIME. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASING WARMTH/DEWPOINTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA
CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AS DEEP TROUGHS SIT
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN TOOK A LITTLE BIT TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS/ISLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
CURRENTLY ARE SEEING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN
KANSAS...WHILE A NOTABLE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE BOUNDARY LIES DRAPED
OVER THE FAR SRN FRINGE OF THE CWA.  WITH THE STRONGER HEATING SOUTH
OF THAT BOUNDARY /TEMPS OF 105-110/ IS RESULTING IS SOME VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND ARE SEEING SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS BEING ON THE WARM SIDE...THAT
CAPPING AT THIS POINT IS HELPING TO KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO
TALL. ACROSS THE N/NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE SEEN A FAIRLY
SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...DRIVEN BY A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST ALONG WITH WARM AIR/THETAE
ADVECTION...AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY IS /AND SHOULD CONTINUE/ SHIFTING EAST.

DECIDED TO UP POPS TO CHANCE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO THIS
EVENING...AND THEN KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST POST-06Z WITH MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING AFFECTED BY THE SUN SETTING. AGAIN THERE IS
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR ISNT THE GREATEST...AND ANY
ACTIVITY SHIFT NORTH INTO OUR CWA IT WILL ALSO RUN INTO LOWER LAPSE
RATES. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE HWO...WITH SUCH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS NEEDED FOR HAIL WILL
LEAVE SIZE AT QUARTERS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE TOO
EXTENSIVE.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON WHETHER THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS CAPPED OFF...OR IF IT
WILL BE SOMETHING SIMILAR TO TODAY WHERE WE CAN GET STEEP ENOUGH
LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH WEAKENING IN THE CAP THAT THINGS CAN
DEVELOP.  DECIDED TO STAY ON THE DRY SIDE WITH THE CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BUILDING
IN...COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE ALL OF SAT/SAT NIGHT.

BIG CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE RISING TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING WARMER/MORE
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.  AS FAR AS HEAT INDEX VALUES GO
SATURDAY...THERE IS ONCE AGAIN CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLOUDS /AND PERHAPS PRECIPITATION/ AFFECTING TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
AREAS. BUT LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS CLOUD COVER...ANY /EVEN SHORT/
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP UP.  AND
SEE NO REASON WHY DEWPOINTS TOMORROW SHOULD BE NOTABLY DIFFERENT
THAN TODAY...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
LOWER DPTS IN THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL LIES.  HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 100-105+...WITH THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA A RESULT OF LOWER ACTUAL TEMPERATURES BUT
HIGHER DPTS...WHERE THE SOUTH WILL HAVE LOWER DPTS BUT HIGHER ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.  DECIDED TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...ITS GOING TO BE
HOT...AND EXPANDED THE EXC HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  FOCUS IS ON THE CONTINUATION OF
HOT TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME REPRIEVE TOWARD DAY 7.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
ESSENTIALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.  AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...AND TOP 100 DEGREES AT TIMES
WHILE LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.  WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT INDICES FROM
105 TO 115 DEGREES.  DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE HEAT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL JUST GO WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH STILL HOT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOME AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD BEGIN
TO DROP SOME.  WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL DAYS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE HEADLINE...BUT WILL GO WITH THE DAYS
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR NOW.  AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST IN THE LATTER PERIODS...CONVECTIVE CHCS BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS INTO THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
342 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
342 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR PROLONGED HEAT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
HEAT WARNING MESSAGE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
839 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

NEZ047-048-062-160230-
HALL NE-HOWARD NE-MERRICK NE-
839 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MERRICK...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD AND NORTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 834 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRAND ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ST. LIBORY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4117 9838 4108 9813 4087 9844 4095 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 217DEG 14KT 4095 9839

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
843 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND            40.92N 98.37W
07/15/2011  E50 MPH          HALL               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
844 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND ISLAND            40.92N 98.37W
07/15/2011  E50.00 MPH       HALL               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
845 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

KSZ007-019-160215-
JEWELL KS-MITCHELL KS-
845 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MANKATO TO BELOIT TO
5 MILES EAST OF VICTOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  RANDALL...
  MONTROSE...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  ASHERVILLE...
  FORMOSO...
  LOVEWELL STATE PARK...
  WEBBER...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3923 9847 3991 9845 4000 9794 3923 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 251DEG 12KT 3977 9819 3950 9808
          3926 9818

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