Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
730 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.UPDATE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREFORE...THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY ALSO BE CANCELED A FEW HOURS EARLY
DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 9 PM WILL BE EAST OF
HWY 281 AND SOUTH OF HWY 6.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
VISIBLE FROM THE KGRI AIRPORT AT TIMES TONIGHT...BUT THE CHANCE OF
ACTUALLY HAVING A THUNDERSTORM AT KGRI HAS DECREASED ENOUGH TO
REMOVE TSRA FROM THE TAF. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011/

SHORT TERM...A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA LINE THIS AFTERNOON...IS FINALLY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF SAGGING SOUTHWARD THE PAST HOUR. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
OF AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION TO SPEAK OF...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO...AND EXPECT FURTHER ENHANCEMENT AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH FREEZING LEVELS
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME POTENTIALLY LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP AND ORGANIZE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS A BIT TRICKY AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCAL OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WITH THINKING THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...KEPT HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH...ALBEIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING
FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS JULY AND THE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REFLECT THAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WILL GRADUALLY BUILD UPPER HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA IS AGAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO A
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR
RAINFALL.

FIRST...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD UNIFORMITY AMONGST MODELS THURSDAY WILL
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY WORKING
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL
TIMING IS CONFINED TO THE DAYTIME AREAS...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON
AVERAGE.

UPPER RIDGING INCREASES HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AND THIS WAS
VIEWED AS A DRIER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ANY STORMS ALONG THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MIGRATE EAST...BUT STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE SCALED BACK RAIN CHANCES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ON LATE SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY MAY
FINALLY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE. THIS THINKING LINGERS
INTO THE MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND SO THERE ARE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT NOT
MUCH BETTER...CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. OVERALL...ITS A PRETTY STANDARD EARLY...VERY WARM...GENERALLY
MUGGY EARLY JULY WEEKEND.

AS HEIGHTS RISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL BY
SATURDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE COMMON AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH PLENTY OF 90S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE
BACK SOME SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SAGS
INTO NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...WESELY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
547 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
061200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
547 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NEAR A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTH FROM NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70
MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LINGERING...NON SEVERE...AND LESS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. INITIALLY...THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN INCREASED RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND GENERALLY IMPACT
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

HOT TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 103 DEGREES EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY

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