Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
340 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA LINE THIS AFTERNOON...IS FINALLY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF SAGGING SOUTHWARD THE PAST HOUR. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
OF AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION TO SPEAK OF...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO...AND EXPECT FURTHER ENHANCEMENT AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH. EVENTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS
ARE RELATIVELY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME POTENTIALLY LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP AND ORGANIZE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS A BIT TRICKY AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCAL OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WITH THINKING THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...KEPT HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH...ALBEIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING
FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS JULY AND THE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REFLECT THAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WILL GRADUALLY BUILD UPPER HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA IS AGAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO A
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE BETTER SHOT FOR
RAINFALL.

FIRST...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD UNIFORMITY AMONGST MODELS THURSDAY WILL
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY WORKING
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL
TIMING IS CONFINED TO THE DAYTIME AREAS...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON
AVERAGE.

UPPER RIDGING INCREASES HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AND THIS WAS
VIEWED AS A DRIER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ANY STORMS ALONG THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MIGRATE EAST...BUT STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE SCALED BACK RAIN CHANCES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ON LATE SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY MAY
FINALLY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE. THIS THINKING LINGERS
INTO THE MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND SO THERE ARE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT NOT
MUCH BETTER...CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. OVERALL...ITS A PRETTY STANDARD EARLY...VERY WARM...GENERALLY
MUGGY EARLY JULY WEEKEND.

AS HEIGHTS RISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL BY
SATURDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE COMMON AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH PLENTY OF 90S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE
BACK SOME SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SAGS
INTO NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A VCTS OR
TSRA TO KGRI BY 05/22Z. TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
FRONT PASSES BY FROM 05/22Z-06/02Z IN A PASSING TSRA. MAY SEE A
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION TOWARDS EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH THIS...SO CONTINUED WITH JUST A
PROB 30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY AND
OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS EVENINGS
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD...SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
LONG TERM...MORITZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
248 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
062000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
248 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NEAR A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...GENERATING SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW
100S ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 136 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LINGERING...NON SEVERE...AND LESS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. INITIALLY...THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN INCREASED RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND GENERALLY IMPACT
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

HOT TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 103 DEGREES EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI/MORITZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
409 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

NEZ048-049-052200-
MERRICK NE-POLK NE-
409 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK AND NORTHEASTERN MERRICK
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A PAIR OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SILVER CREEK...OR 20 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  OSCEOLA...
  STROMSBURG...
  SHELBY...

LAT...LON 4105 9736 4105 9776 4114 9783 4123 9783
      4131 9777 4131 9770 4139 9770 4135 9759
      4134 9759 4134 9758 4126 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 300DEG 20KT 4126 9766

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
425 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND GST     OSCEOLA                 41.18N 97.55W
07/05/2011  E60 MPH          POLK               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
426 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             OSCEOLA                 41.18N 97.55W
07/05/2011  E1.00 INCH       POLK               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
430 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             3 NE SHELBY             41.22N 97.39W
07/05/2011  E0.50 INCH       POLK               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL FELL FROM 415 TO 417 ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
431 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             OSCEOLA                 41.18N 97.55W
07/05/2011  E1.50 INCH       POLK               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NWS