Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
954 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.UPDATE...PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 2 AM CDT. IN ADDITION...BUMPED POPS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
AS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BEGINNING LATE
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY
IMPACT THE TAF SITE. WITH THIS SYSTEM...CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED AS
WELL. IFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THIS...SO KEPT IT OUT OF TAF. AFTER INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS
PASS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LOW STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION KEEPING CEILINGS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING PATCHY FOG FOR THE REGION...ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW...CLOUD BASES SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH
THE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
UPON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS
A RESULT. SEVERAL SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN THE
MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
WARM FRONT IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH
A DRY LINE ALSO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS. MORNING CONVECTION HAS ALSO
RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT MESO-HIGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE MESO-
HIGH HAS DISSIPATED AND PUSHED FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
HOWEVER THAT THE MEAN SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS BEEN
REESTABLISHED...THUS ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.

SEVERAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONES CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN KANSAS AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NOTED FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR AREA. THAT BEING SAID...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SEVERAL SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS PUSHING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS EVERY WEAK AND AM
NOT SO SURE ANY ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. ALL THAT
BEING SAID...THE CURRENT THINKING IS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN KANSAS ALONG THE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. MEAN
STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE WEST AT
AROUND 35KTS...WHICH MEANS WE WOULD NEED FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS OR WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND
THAT COULD BE REALIZED SHOULD THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WITH SEVERE WEATHER ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE SAME AREA IN THE HWO.

CONVECTION IS ALREADY ERUPTING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION WILL MORPH INTO AN MCS AND PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXISTING CONVECTION...A 50KT LLJ IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE INTO THE MCS WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THE MCS. WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT POPS GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT WITH SEVERE
WEATHER ALSO INCLUDED IN THE HWO.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THUS
PROMOTING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA
AND ALSO RESULTING IN DECREASING VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS
A RESULT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN AN
AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

STARTING SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WEST...A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
MIDWEST...WITH TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S.  MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AT THAT TIME WITH A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOWS IN CANADA
WITH ONE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO THE HUDSON
BAY. RESEMBLES AN OMEGA ACROSS CANADA. NO CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN DURING THE WEEKEND BUT EVENTUALLY AN UPSTREAM LOW OVER
ALASKA SHOULD MOVE EAST AND START TO PUSH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORKWEEK.  TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS BY TUES INTO THURS AS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BACKING UP JUST A BIT...WITH THE MAIN WAVE SITTING TO OUR WEST
SAT & SUN...EXPECTING A SHORT WAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT. VARIOUS MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH FAVORED LOCATION FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH BLANKET 30 POP FOR NOW. COULD SEE A REPEAT IN THIS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.  BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE TUESDAY
THE MAIN LOW SHOULD PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUING OUR RAIN
CHANCES. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE EC HAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE CWA BY
12Z WED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND WOULD EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR
WED AND THURS IF THIS HOLDS TRUE. 12Z GFS RUN ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS CLOSED LOW OVER AREA A LITTLE LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP RAIN
CHANCES GOING ON WED. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLES THIS SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER SO FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR MORE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLED ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK.  BASICALLY WILL
GO WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH
LOWER 80S NORTH.  WED AND THURS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY CLOUD COVER FROM ANY REMNANT MCS'S WILL HAMPER
HIGHS ON ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CHESTER
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...EWALD
UPDATE...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
707 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
171200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
707 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS...AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM ORD...TO HASTINGS...TO HEBRON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE STATUS...WITH HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH VARIOUS...OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1004 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND GST     NATOMA                  39.19N 99.02W
06/16/2011  M57 MPH          OSBORNE            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED FROM KSN WEATHER NETWORK.

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1014 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OSBORNE                 39.44N 98.70W
06/16/2011                   OSBORNE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES RIPPED OFF OF HOUSES IN TOWN. POWER OUTAGES AS
            WELL.

&&

NWS

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