Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Hastings, NE

199 
WWUS53 KGID 012303
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
603 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSC141-147-163-183-012330-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-110601T2330Z/
SMITH KS-ROOKS KS-PHILLIPS KS-OSBORNE KS-
603 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
OSBORNE...SOUTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN ROOKS AND SOUTHERN SMITH
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPEED TO 
ALTON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PHILLIPSBURG...GLADE...KIRWIN...CEDAR...PORTIS...HARLAN...
  GAYLORD...AGRA...KENSINGTON AND ATHOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3933 9928 3957 9963 3968 9953 3990 9915
      3958 9850 3957 9850 3956 9848 3955 9849
      3932 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 248DEG 18KT 3969 9936 3948 9886
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.50IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
331 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...AS
WELL AS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HELPED INDUCE A
FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH REPORTEDLY SOME VERY SMALL
HAIL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...AND MAIN FOCUS OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH EASTERN KANSAS.

A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THESE
INCREASED DEWPOINTS...WITH AN UNSTABLE PROFILE ALOFT...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PARTIALLY CLOUD FREE SKIES THIS MORNING
HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD SURFACE HEATING. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING TO GET THESE STORMS INITIATED...WITH 12Z NAM
AND GFS BOTH INDICATING VERY SMALL RIPPLES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH MAY JUST BE SUFFICIENT TO GET THINGS GOING. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE
OF DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LACK OF FORCING IS NOT HIGH...SO KEPT
CHANCES TO AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...COULD
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO RESULT IN A RATHER WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WINDS
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WHICH LEFT US
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL END UP
NEEDING AN ADVISORY TOMORROW...BUT EVEN IF ONE IS NOT
ISSUED...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. WHILE THE AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER A STRONG CAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND HENCE
KEPT FORECAST DRY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SO KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS LIE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE
WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF AREA
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ROUGHLY UP THE MS RIVER AND
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE CWA SITS UNDER SHARP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS THANKS TO ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTING NE OUT OF MT INTO CANADA...WHILE THE NEXT MAKES
ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THERE ISNT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...THE RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN SLIGHTLY BY THE TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL CANADA
SWINGS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED INTO THE CWA...BUT
DOESNT MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BEYOND THE CWA DUE TO IT
LOSING ITS MAIN PUSH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES EAST.
KEPT THE FORECAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...EVEN WITH THIS
SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO RETURN...AS A
S/SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP AND NOSES INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
INCREASED WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG AND
POSSIBLY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE E/NE WITH THE TURNING OF THE LLJ. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE A BIT
TRICKY WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC FRONT...BUT IT COMING A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY...EXPECT THAT THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID90S...MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE NWRN
CWA ALONG/N OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
EXPECTED.

 AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND NOT A LOT OF CHANGES
WERE MADE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE FLATTENED OUT SOME THANKS TO
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CNTRL/NRN CANADA...BRINGING
MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
RIGHT OFF THE COAST OF CA. THIS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...THAT
CANADIAN LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS...SHIFTING THAT RIDGE AXIS BACK WEST
ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SATURDAY SEES LITTLE CHANGE WITH
THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AM AGAIN EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CONFINED TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...WITH THINGS LOOKING TO REMAIN CAPPED
DURING THE DAY...AND THERE A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
NOSE OF AN INCREASING LLJ /THOUGH MODELS SHOWING IT NOT QUITE AS
STRONG/. WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY...THINK THAT TEMPS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER /80S/...BUT
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS ALOFT...SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER /UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S/.

INTO NEXT WEEK...PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...AND THERE ARE VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER /ESP
INTO MID WEEK/. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO HOW MODELS HANDLE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST...HOW FAR
SOUTH IT DIGS /HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN BECOMES/...AND TO WHAT
EXTENT THE RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN BY ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUPPORTING THAT...BUT IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
MODELS FOR A POP TO NEED TO BE INSERTED. WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING
A BIG PART OF THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...AM KEEPING TEMPS
WARM...WITH HIGHS RANGING OVER MON-WED FROM THE MID 80S TO MID
90S.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A VCTS OR
-TSRA AFFECT THE TAF SITE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 01/23Z-02/02Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
A -TSRA...ALBEIT WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY...DECREASING SOME
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY TO BECOME WINDY ON THURSDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AFT 02/15Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT/AVIATION...ROSSI
LONG...ADO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
021200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
500 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS OF 70
MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED EITHER NIGHT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH ARE LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
518 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  40.25N 99.63W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0512 PM     HAIL             5 S OXFORD              40.18N 99.63W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
521 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             6 S STOCKTON            39.35N 99.27W
06/01/2011  E1.50 INCH       ROOKS              KS   PUBLIC

            PING PONG SIZE

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             6 ESE COZAD             40.83N 99.88W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   STORM CHASER

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
533 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             3 N LURAY               39.16N 98.69W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       OSBORNE            KS   PUBLIC

&&

DOXEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             COZAD                   40.86N 99.99W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
538 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             STOCKTON                39.44N 99.27W
06/01/2011  M2.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

DOXEY