Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Hastings, NE

342 
WWUS83 KGID 302348
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011


KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ082-083-010100-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110501T0000Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-ROOKS-OSBORNE-FURNAS-HARLAN-
648 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...017...018...082 AND 083...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES.

IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE
006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018
OSBORNE. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 082 FURNAS...FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 083 HARLAN.

THE WIND IS BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE ON THE RISE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

$$

WESELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KGRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS NEAR 8000FT AGL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BREAKING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 23KTS AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS BY 17Z. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 01Z AS THE PBL DECOUPLES AND THE LOW
LEVEL PGF WEAKENS SOME. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011/

DISCUSSION...KUEX WSR-88D EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE APPEAR
TO BE TIED TO A PASSING H7 WAVE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE 30.00Z NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z...SO WILL GO
DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TODAY...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE AT THEIR STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 29.00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MIXING WILL BECOME QUITE DEEP...WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SUGGESTING WINDS NEAR 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE
NORTH. GFS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BRINGS SUSTAINED WINDS TO NEAR 30
MPH IN PARTS OF THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY STARTING AT NOON. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOCUSED NORTH
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON TO FULLERTON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WILL
AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AS MIXING DECREASES AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...AND HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES NOW THAT
WE ARE HEADING INTO MAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
30S LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SO IF WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH
FROST COULD BECOME A CONCERN. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
HEADLINE AND LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THINGS...BUT WILL MENTION AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBILITIES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE
NOT VERY HIGH...WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE VARIOUS SHORT
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST/NORTHWEST IN
DIRECTION AND THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING ANY
SUBTLE WAVES THAT MAY TRY TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE SREF WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS ANY RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...BUT DOES BRING IN A SMALL
POP MONDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE THE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
OF THE AREA...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL AGAIN MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS A START.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ039>041-046-047-060-061.

KS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BRYANT
DISCUSSION...KING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
011200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
347 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO FULLERTON...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND
ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR ARAPAHOE NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S COULD HELP LEAD TO
PATCHY FROST IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH MORE PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PLAINVILLE KANSAS TO YORK NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)