Alert archive / Nebraska / Red Flag Warnings in 2011
Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Hastings, NE
NWS Hastings, NE issued this red flag warning at Oct 3, 2011, 1:33 PM CDT for 24 counties in Nebraska; 6 counties in Kansas. It took effect at Oct 4, 2011, 12:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 3, 2011, 1:33 PM CDT (18:33 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 4, 2011, 12:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Oct 4, 2011, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Hastings, NE
All 30 counties
Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Valley County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE
The radar
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2838 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 30 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
461 WWUS83 KGID 031833 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 133 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON... .SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085- 040300- /O.NEW.KGID.FW.W.0010.111004T1700Z-111005T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-ROOKS-OSBORNE-VALLEY-GREELEY-SHERMAN-HOWARD-DAWSON- BUFFALO-HALL-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER- 133 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006... 017...018...039...040...046...047...060...061...062...072...073... 074...075...082...083...084 AND 085... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 GREELEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 046 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 HOWARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 DAWSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 061 BUFFALO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 062 HALL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 072 GOSPER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 073 PHELPS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 082 FURNAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY TO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ007-019-NEZ041-048-049-063-064-076-077-086-087-040300- /O.NEW.KGID.FW.A.0006.111004T1700Z-111005T0000Z/ JEWELL-MITCHELL-NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE- NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 133 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 007...019...041...048...049...063...064...076... 077...086 AND 087... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 NANCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 048 MERRICK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 THAYER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY TO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ BRYANT
5 follow-up statements
082 WWUS83 KGID 040203 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 903 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON... .SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVEHUMIDITY VALUES...WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085- 041015- /O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0010.111004T1700Z-111005T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-ROOKS-OSBORNE-VALLEY-GREELEY-SHERMAN-HOWARD-DAWSON- BUFFALO-HALL-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER- 903 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...017...018...039...040...046...047...060...061...062... 072...073...074...075...082...083...084 AND 085... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 GREELEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 046 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 HOWARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 DAWSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 061 BUFFALO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 062 HALL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 072 GOSPER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 073 PHELPS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 082 FURNAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY TO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ007-019-NEZ041-048-049-063-064-076-077-086-087-041015- /O.CON.KGID.FW.A.0006.111004T1700Z-111005T0000Z/ JEWELL-MITCHELL-NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE- NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 903 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 007...019...041...048...049...063...064... 076...077...086 AND 087... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 NANCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 048 MERRICK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 THAYER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY TO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$
301 WWUS83 KGID 040853 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 353 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... .SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS RESULTING IN VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. KSZ007-019-NEZ041-048-049-063-064-076-077-086-087-041700- /O.UPG.KGID.FW.A.0006.111004T1700Z-111005T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KGID.FW.A.0007.111005T1700Z-111006T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KGID.FW.W.0010.111004T1700Z-111005T0000Z/ JEWELL-MITCHELL-NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE- NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 353 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 007...019...041...048...049...063...064...076...077...086 AND 087... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 007...019...041...048...049...063...064...076... 077...086 AND 087... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 NANCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 048 MERRICK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 THAYER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS THE AREA. USE CAUTION WHEN CONDUCTING ACTIVITIES WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FIRE. THIS INCLUDES THOSE UNDERWAY WITH THE HARVEST OF CROPS...AS THE USE OF LARGE FARM MACHINERY AND OFF ROAD VEHICLES IN THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN AN ACCIDENTAL FIRE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ KSZ005-006-017-018-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085- 041700- /O.NEW.KGID.FW.A.0007.111005T1700Z-111006T0000Z/ /O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0010.111004T1700Z-111005T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-ROOKS-OSBORNE-VALLEY-GREELEY-SHERMAN-HOWARD-DAWSON- BUFFALO-HALL-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER- 353 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...017...018...039...040...046...047...060...061... 062...072...073...074...075...082...083...084 AND 085... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...017...018...039...040...046...047... 060...061...062...072...073...074...075...082...083...084 AND 085... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 GREELEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 046 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 HOWARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 DAWSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 061 BUFFALO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 062 HALL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 072 GOSPER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 073 PHELPS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 082 FURNAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS THE AREA. USE CAUTION WHEN CONDUCTING ACTIVITIES WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FIRE. THIS INCLUDES THOSE UNDERWAY WITH THE HARVEST OF CROPS...AS THE USE OF LARGE FARM MACHINERY AND OFF ROAD VEHICLES IN THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN AN ACCIDENTAL FIRE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ ADO
717 WWUS83 KGID 041623 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... .SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WHICH WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 050030- /O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0010.111004T1700Z-111005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KGID.FW.A.0007.111005T1700Z-111006T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005... 006...007...017...018...019...039...040...041...046...047...048... 049...060...061...062...063...064...072...073...074...075...076... 077...082...083...084...085...086 AND 087... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...007...017...018...019...039... 040...041...046...047...048...049...060...061...062...063...064... 072...073...074...075...076...077...082...083...084...085... 086 AND 087... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 NANCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 048 MERRICK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 THAYER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS THE AREA. USE CAUTION WHEN CONDUCTING ACTIVITIES WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FIRE. THIS INCLUDES THOSE UNDERWAY WITH THE HARVEST OF CROPS...AS THE USE OF LARGE FARM MACHINERY AND OFF ROAD VEHICLES IN THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN AN ACCIDENTAL FIRE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$
697 WWUS83 KGID 042034 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 334 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY... .SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WHICH HAVE CREATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 050900- /O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KGID.FW.A.0007.111005T1700Z-111006T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 334 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005... 006...007...017...018...019...039...040...041...046...047...048... 049...060...061...062...063...064...072...073...074...075...076... 077...082...083...084...085...086 AND 087... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...007...017...018...019...039... 040...041...046...047...048...049...060...061...062...063...064... 072...073...074...075...076...077...082...083...084...085... 086 AND 087... * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 GREELEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 NANCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 046 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 HOWARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 048 MERRICK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 DAWSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 061 BUFFALO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 062 HALL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 072 GOSPER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 073 PHELPS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 082 FURNAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 THAYER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS HAVE RESULTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS THE AREA. USE CAUTION WHEN CONDUCTING ACTIVITIES WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FIRE. THIS INCLUDES THOSE UNDERWAY WITH THE HARVEST OF CROPS...AS THE USE OF LARGE FARM MACHINERY AND OFF ROAD VEHICLES IN THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN AN ACCIDENTAL FIRE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$
611 WWUS83 KGID 042359 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 659 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY... .GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WHICH WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 051000- /O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KGID.FW.A.0007.111005T1700Z-111006T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 659 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...007...017...018...019...039... 040...041...046...047...048...049...060...061...062...063...064... 072...073...074...075...076...077...082...083...084...085... 086 AND 087... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006... 007...017...018...019...039...040...041...046...047...048...049... 060...061...062...063...064...072...073...074...075...076...077... 082...083...084...085...086 AND 087... THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 GREELEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 NANCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 046 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 HOWARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 048 MERRICK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 DAWSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 061 BUFFALO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 062 HALL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 072 GOSPER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 073 PHELPS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 082 FURNAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 THAYER. * SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 20 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * THE INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS THE AREA. USE CAUTION WHEN CONDUCTING ACTIVITIES WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FIRE. THIS INCLUDES THOSE UNDERWAY WITH THE HARVEST OF CROPS...AS THE USE OF LARGE FARM MACHINERY AND OFF ROAD VEHICLES IN THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN AN ACCIDENTAL FIRE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ WESELY
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 3, 12:37 PM CDT, 56 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 3, 12:37 PM CDT, 56 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1237 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 .UPDATE...MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM...RUC AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST DEEP PBL MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DECREASE OF AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA SO WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED NEAR 40 DEGREE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH MID TO UPPER 30 DEGREE DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S APPEAR ON TARGET AND THE RESULTANT AFTERNOON SURFACE RH VALUES DIVE INTO THE 15-20% RANGE ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...WITH 20-25% RH VALUES ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA ZONES. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR RFW ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO CONTINUE FOR TOMORROW AS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PGF HELPS INCREASE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WITHIN THE PAST HOUR FUEL STATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BEEN DEEMED FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE CWA. OTHER THAN DECREASING DEW POINTS SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS NEAR 20K FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 12KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO NEAR 15KTS...GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS...BY 15Z TUESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2011/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES LIE WITH TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BEEN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH 00Z UPPER AIR AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA STILL SHOWING THE CENTRAL CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING. THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...SITTING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER VA/NC AND ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. SEEING A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA CONTINUES TO SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SKY COVER. AT THE SURFACE...HASNT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGES OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...THE CWA STILL SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN MISS RIVER VALLEY...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT. THROUGH TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE...RESULTING IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. AS WE GET INTO LATER TONIGHT...AND ESP TUESDAY ON....THE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES ALL SHIFT FURTHER EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE MO RIVER. LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF AK TOWARD THE PAC NW...WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKING TO DIG INTO THE SWRN CONUS BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHES ONTO THE PLAINS. MODELS TIMING/LOCATION NOT BAD...SHOWING IT PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER IT CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. SOME MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT A BIT OF QPF IN THE AREA ARND 06Z THURSDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THIS POINT DECIDED TO KEEP POPS OUT...BUT DO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...THE MAIN CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WAS TO THE DEW POINTS...PRIMARILY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHEN LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...ITS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT...THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. THIS KEEPS WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS. TODAY...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER WRN KS...A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT EAST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH...BRINGING MORE SOLIDLY SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IS WITH MIXING POTENTIAL AND WIND SPEEDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUE/WED...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCH BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST...THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO TAP INTO. SPEEDS TODAY EXPECTED TO PEAK ARND 15 MPH...BUT TUES/WED EXPECTED TO SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25MPH...AND GUSTS NEAR 30MPH. WITH THIS IN MIND...MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BOTH TUES/WED...AS MUCH AS 5-8 DEGREES. MODELS/GUIDANCE DOESNT ALWAYS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON SITUATIONS WHERE MIXING IS GOOD...AND THE DEWPTS END UP BEING TOO HIGH...A BIG ISSUE IF THERE ARE FIRE WX CONCERNS. FORECAST DEWPTS WERE DROPPED INTO THE 30S BOTH DAYS. THE INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO HELP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH TUESDAY STILL ON TAP TO BE THE WARMEST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS ALOFT LOOKING TO BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER ON WED. FOR TODAY...GENERALLY MID 80S EXPECTED CWA-WIDE...WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY...AND LOWER 80S FOR WED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD...INCREASING FURTHER INTO THE 50S THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MORE INFO CONCERNING FIRE WX CAN BE FOUND BELOW. LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUES TO INCH EASTWARD. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE END TO A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THIS RAINFALL BEING THE FIRST PRECIPITATION MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SEEN IN MORE THAN 3 WEEKS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN VERY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY...AS THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A VERY WET COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GLOBAL MODELS PAINTING A NICE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER...WHILE TUES/WED LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY DAYS OF CONCERN IN REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...ISSUES TODAY ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THOUGH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S/30S ARE FORECAST...RESULTING IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOWER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WEAKER SFC PATTERN/WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CWA FROM HITTING THE WIND CRITERIA NEEDED /SUSTAINED 20 MPH AND/OR GUSTS OF 25 MPH/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE SEE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MIXING/HIGHER WINDS AND TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO TUES AND WED. ONE ISSUE IS THE FUEL STATUS...AT THIS TIME ONLY OUR KS COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DEEMED FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...FOR ONE THING TO GIVE THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...AND ALSO TO GET THE MOST UP TO DATE FUEL STATUS INFORMATION. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && UPDATE/AVIATION...BRYANT SHORT TERM/FIRE...ADO LONG TERM...ROSSI
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 7:30 AM CDT, 6 hours 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 730 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 041200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 730 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY FUELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) ADO
The office that day
Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 1:33 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | GID | Clay, Fillmore, Hamilton, Merrick, Nance, Nuckolls and 3 more | 14 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Nebraska, 2011Red Flag Warnings in Kansas, 2011Every red flag warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.