Alert archive / Nebraska / Red Flag Warnings in 2011
Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE
NWS Hastings, NE issued this red flag warning at Feb 17, 2011, 4:02 AM CST for 6 counties in Kansas; 24 counties in Nebraska. It took effect at Feb 17, 2011, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 17, 2011, 4:02 AM CST (10:02 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 17, 2011, 12:00 PM CST
- Expired
- Feb 17, 2011, 6:00 PM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Hastings, NE
All 30 counties
Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Valley County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE
The radar
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 4700 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 69 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 86 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 183 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
932 WWUS83 KGID 171002 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 402 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON... KSZ005-017-018-172200- /O.UPG.KGID.FW.A.0001.110217T1800Z-110218T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KGID.FW.W.0001.110217T1800Z-110218T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-ROOKS-OSBORNE- 402 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...017 AND 018... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE. * WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. * AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE RISING TOWARD SUNSET. * THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS...WILL PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ006-019-NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082>084-172200- /O.NEW.KGID.FW.W.0001.110217T1800Z-110218T0000Z/ SMITH-MITCHELL-VALLEY-SHERMAN-DAWSON-BUFFALO-GOSPER-PHELPS- KEARNEY-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- 402 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 006...019...039...046...060...061...072...073...074...082... 083 AND 084... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 046 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 DAWSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 061 BUFFALO... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 072 GOSPER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 073 PHELPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 082 FURNAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN. * WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. * AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE RISING TOWARD SUNSET. * THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS...WILL PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ PFANNKUCH
3 follow-up statements
642 WWUS83 KGID 171817 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1217 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON... KSZ007-180000- /O.EXA.KGID.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0000Z/ JEWELL- 1217 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE JEWELL COUNTY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. * SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS JEWELL COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. * AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE RISING AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. * THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS... WILL PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ005-006-017>019-NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082>084-180000- /O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-SHERMAN-DAWSON- BUFFALO-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- 1217 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 006... 019...039...046...060...061...072...073...074...082... 083 AND 084... * SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. * AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE RISING AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. * THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS... WILL PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ ROSSI
033 WWUS83 KGID 172111 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 311 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON... NEZ040-041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087-180000- /O.EXA.KGID.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0000Z/ GREELEY-NANCE-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-ADAMS-CLAY- FILLMORE-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 311 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 040...041... 047...048...049...062...063...064...075...076...077...085... 086 AND 087... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. * SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. * AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 20 PERCENT...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE BACK ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. * THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS...WILL PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082>084-180000- /O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-SHERMAN- DAWSON-BUFFALO-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- 311 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005... 006...007...017...018...019...039...046...060...061...072...073... 074...082...083 AND 084... * SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. * AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 20 PERCENT...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE BACK ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. * THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS...WILL PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ ROSSI
993 WWUS83 KGID 172346 RFWGID URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 546 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 180100- /O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110218T0000Z/ PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 546 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...007...017...018...019...039...040... 041...046...047...048...049...060...061...062...063...064... 072...073...074...075...076...077...082...083...084...085... 086 AND 087... THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES. * ...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 GREELEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 NANCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 046 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 HOWARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 048 MERRICK... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 DAWSON... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 061 BUFFALO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 062 HALL... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 072 GOSPER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 073 PHELPS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 075 ADAMS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077 FILLMORE... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 082 FURNAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 THAYER. * THE WIND WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN AFTER 6 PM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. $$ WESELY
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 16, 11:24 PM CST, 4 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 11:24 PM CST, 4 hours 38 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1124 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011 .AVIATION...THERE SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO THE 17/06Z TAF. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...AND THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN 17/00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KGRI. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 18/02Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO KGRI. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011/ UPDATE...SENT OUT A NEW HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPROVING ICE CONDITIONS ON THE PLATTE...NORTH LOUP...AND MIDDLE LOUP RIVERS. ICE JAM RELATED FLOOD THREAT HAS DECREASED ON THESE RIVERS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING IS HIGH ON THE LOUP RIVER IN NANCE COUNTY. SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...AS SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED AROUND BELOIT THIS MORNING AND MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A REPEAT AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER LONG...AND BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS...ALBEIT OPTED TO KEEP JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD VALUES ACROSS TRI-CITIES AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO APPROACH 20 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ZONES...SO OPTED TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS ROOKS...PHILLIPS AND OSBORNE COUNTIES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND ASSOCIATED FRONT...BUT CONTINUE TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z FRIDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER UPON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC...OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL SUGGEST A MID LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN ON INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PATHS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WHEN THE GFS AND EC ARE COMPARED...DIFFERENCES IN SPEED OF THE MID LEVEL LOW STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE TWO...PUSHING THE LOW COMPLETELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z MONDAY. THE EC REMAINS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. DIFFERENCES ALSO EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EC VERY QUICK TO PUSH ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE GFS NOT ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY...AND EVEN THEN THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. OBVIOUSLY THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CAUSING FORECASTING DIFFICULTIES AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE PLAYING THE MIDDLE GROUND. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AND DPVA TO PRESENT OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLEARS THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANE POPS GOING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION. THE MOST TROUBLESOME PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A TIME PERIOD WHICH FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY PRESENT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE CWA. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED -FZRA TO THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCOMING DATA FROM BOTH THE EC AND GFS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION COMPLETELY TO RAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE TO ABOVE-FREEZING LEVELS POST-SUNRISE...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE PRESENT TO PROVIDE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PERHAPS RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDER...DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND TRANSITIONED PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR IS THEN FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA. AGAIN...BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...WILL PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND BY UNDERCUTTING GFS NUMBERS...YET REMAINING WARMER THAN THE MUCH COLDER EC. THIS PRESENTS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED BY MID NEXT WEEK. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005-017-018. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 16, 6:41 PM CST, 9 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 641 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039-040-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 171200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 641 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY TO YORK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HEBRON NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) NEZ041-171200- NANCE- 641 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NANCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE CONTINUATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING ON THE LOUP RIVER IN NANCE COUNTY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING ON THE LOUP RIVER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY TO YORK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) WESELY
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Nebraska, 2011Red Flag Warnings in Kansas, 2011Every red flag warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.